• An ‘unfamiliar’ era for investors has arrived after a 20-year ‘regime’: Morning Brief
Investors are unfamiliar to high interest and inflation.
• November CPI report marks latest test for Fed in fight against inflation
A pretty decent CPI reading would be needed for a Santa Rally, … is what people are saying, but could it just charge on regardless?
• Big banks find many ‘reasons to be optimistic about 2025’ as Trump 2.0 nears
Banks are expecting heightened investment banking fees and trading revenue in Q4, with decent interest income.
• Exclusive: Chinese authorities are considering a weaker yuan as Trump trade risks loom, sources say
The nation will need ample firearm ahead of the proclaimed 60% tariff looming ahead.
• Netflix co-CEO shakes off M&A in 2025: ‘We’re better builders than buyers’
Netflix has acquired the Roald Dahl Story Company before.
• Older workers are the happiest workers, study finds
The Pew Research Center paper on how Americans view their jobs. Two-thirds of people over 65 are highly satisfied.
• Inside Assad’s Ransacked Palace: Anxiety Pills, Graffiti and Shredded Posters
Bashar al-Assad’s palace in Damascus, Syria is occupied by rebel fighters and civilians as the previous ruler flees to Russia. The year-long civil war ended abruptly in two weeks as Russia and Iran couldn’t come to help defeat insurgents. The palace was completed in 1990 under Assad’s father.
• China Economists Ramp Up Expectations for Rate Cuts, Spending
Banks expect rate cuts of 40 to 60bps. 7-day reverse repo rate is currently 150bps. PBOC expected to reduce reserve requirement ratio by 250bps.
• The Fed’s ‘final 5-pound’ issue with inflation points to gradual rate cuts: Morning Brief
3% Inflation is solid progress from 9% in mid-2022. But the last 1%p gap is hard to close.
• TSMC Revenue Jumps 34% in November in Sign of AI Demand
TSMC shares are up 80% this year.
• Apple’s rally is unabated by sluggish growth and tariff risks
Apple shares continue to gain despite slowest revenue growth among Big Tech and lackluster iPhone sales. An analyst says it owns “the chokepoint between AI and the consumer.” Chokepoints are crucial, and could be counter intuitive. In today’s world chip fabs, as much as the designers, are the choke points. Costco’s large distribution is a big enough chokepoint to gradually promote its own brands.
• US finalizes more than $6.1b chips subsidy for Micron Technology
The investment will help “onshore a critical technology relied upon by our defense industry, automotive sector and national security community”
• Many student loan borrowers are in for a big, bad surprise in 2025
Federal government is expected to start collecting on defaulted loans since the collection pause during the pandemic.
• South Korea’s Yoon Survives Impeachment After Martial Law Fiasco
• US-China Tech War Fuels Asia Boomtowns Built on AI, Chips
Tech investments change landscape of Malaysia and Vietnam.
• Apple Plans Three-Year Modem Rollout in Bid to Top Qualcomm
Apple’s half-decade long cell modem will be featured in iPhone SE next spring.
• Trillion-Dollar Gap Shows Diverging Korea, Taiwan Stock Fortunes
Taiwan equities rose 30% this year, dwarfing neighbors.
• Goldman Decides to Leave World’s Top Climate Alliance for Banks
Goldman leaves the Net-Zero Banking Alliance.
• Reviled South Korea Leader Still Likely to Survive Impeachment
• Korea Crisis Has Silver Lining for Markets as Backstops Kick In
Korea’s central bank promised to provide unlimited liquidity if necessary.
• Bitcoin True Believers Bask in I-Told-You-So Glow at $100,000
• Ulta Shares Surge on Strong Sales Despite Discount Fears
• Jane Street, Millennium Settle India Options Trade Secrets Case
Ex-traders of Jane Street took a lucrative trading strategy involving India options that generated $1b for the firm in 2023.
• Lululemon Boost Outlook as Overseas Sales Blunt US Softness
• Aftershocks Rattle Northern California Following Large Quake
• November jobs report expected to show hiring rebound, unemployment holding steady at 4.1%
This is Bloomberg consensus. October figure was impacted by the hurricane.
• Elon Musk’s DOGE benefits from being whatever people want it to be
• Big changes are coming to AI in 2025: Microsoft
AI agents will be able to perform specific tasks.
• Bitcoin price today: hits new high above $103k as Trump picks pro-crypto SEC Chair
• BlackRock sees ‘exceptionalism’ powering US stocks higher in 2025
• Crypto is getting the SEC boss it wanted in Paul Atkins
Atkins is against unnecessary oversight.
• Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff: DOGE has a real shot at cutting costs, and new technologies could help
• Nvidia to build AI research, data centres in Vietnam with govt
• Hedge Funds Make MicroStrategy Wall Street’s Hottest Trade
• Elon Musk is getting some (tentative) bipartisan interest as he heads to Capitol Hill
Some Democrats concur with Musk’s notion of DOGE.
• US weekly jobless claims rose more than expected
Rose from 215k to 225k for the week ending Nov 30.
• OPEC+ to delay supply increase by three months, Bloomberg reports
It is the third postponement amid depressed oil price levels.
• South Korea Opposition Seeks to Impeach President for Treason.
• How Citigroup’s Firing of Asia Equity Sales Traders Is Haunting the Bank Years Later
• China Services Expansion Cools Despite Recent Stimulus Push
• China Tech Stumbles in Hunt for Wall Street’s AI Gold Rush
• Asian Stocks Fall as Political Turmoil Hits Korea: Markets Wrap
• Larry Fink Is Making a New Generation of Billionaires Richer Than Him
BlackRock acquires the private-credit firm HPS Investment Partners for $12b. BLK recently acquired Preqin and GIP.
• President Biden’s Growing Worries Spurred Son’s Pardon Without Delay
• Amazon Announces Supercomputer, New Server Powered by Homegrown AI Chips
• SpaceX Weighs Tender Offer at Roughly $350 Billion Valuation
The company was last valued at $210b in a tender offer, by which employees and early investors can sell shares.
• US-China Rivalry Enters a New Arena in Africa
Biden visits Angola. US will finance most of the Lobito Atlantic Railway that connects Angola port to the copper mines of the Democratic Republic of Congo. China has been expanding influence in the region.
• A New Method to Map the Brain: Infect It With a Virus
E11 injects virus into a living mouse’s brain, that will cause neurons to make special, identifiable proteins. Then the mouse brain is dissected, its proteins colored to draw the map.
• Russia’s Seaborne Crude Exports Jump Before Pivotal OPEC+ Talks
• French Lawmakers to Vote Wednesday on Toppling Government
• China Leaders Plan to Discuss GDP Target, Stimulus Next Week
• Vietnam Tycoon Loses Death Penalty Appeal Over Fraud Scandal
• ‘Moana 2’ fuels biggest Thanksgiving box office of all time
Moana 2, Wicked, Gladiator II makes a combined $420m in the week of Thanksgiving.
• How Trump’s mass deportation plan can use AI to extend immigration crackdown
DHS allocated $5 for AI in the 2025 budget. AI usage will likely expand in the execution of Trump’s mass deportation plan.
• The tech support desk at work is one of the first jobs on AI replacement ticket
Palo Alto Network’s CEO said this year that it has reduced IT support staff by 50% and could widen to 80%. “We’ve been able to automate a lot of the tasks and also use gen AI to answer employee’s questions.”
• As retailers enter the holiday season, the winners are pulling away from the pack
Target, Kohl’s, Best Buy: bad results. Walmart, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Abercrombie & Fitch: good results. People are cutting back on visiting weak retailers amid inflation.
• China Skips Politburo Readout as Investors Await Stimulus
The 20th Politburo previously missed a statement in May 2023, and investors look towards the December releases.
• Biden Pardons Son Hunter in Reversal With Weeks Left in Term
Biden had said he will not use his powers to pardon his family.
• US Tightens Curbs on China’s Access to AI Memory and Chips Tools
The expanded sanctions include the sale of HBM and chipmaking gear produced by US firms in foreign locations and a blacklisting of 140 more Chinese entities.
• Milei Touts $50 Billion From Investors Eyeing 30-Year Loopholes in Argentina
Milei’s incentive package, RIGI, aims to lure energy, mining, tech, forestry, steel, tourism companies. A big part is currency stabilization and a consistent policy.
• Europe’s Largest Pension Fund Buys Mortgages Worth $2.8 Billion
Stichting Pensioenfonds ABP acquires $2.8b portfolio of Dutch mortgages
• Trump Demands ‘Commitment’ From BRICS on Using US Dollar
“The idea that the BRICS Countries are trying to move away from the dollar while we stand by and watch is OVER. … will face 100% Tariffs, and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful U.S. Economy.” BRICS countries are Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, UAE.
• Trump Picks Loyalist ‘Deep State’ Critic Patel to Head FBI
Trump has been criticizing FBI for being corrupt. FBI searched Mar-a-Lago in 2022.
• Rush to ‘Value Up’ May Be Asian Stocks’ Best Defense From Trump
The article’s focus is on Japan, Korea, Singapore, China, India’s endeavor to boost stocks through enhanced governance and returns to shareholders. Doesn’t discuss how it would be a defense against Trump.
• JPMorgan Rejects Transition-Finance Trend Gripping Wall Street
JPMorgan’s Linda French deems the allocation of capital to help cut carbon emissions are in the gray zone and that finance will move when it makes economical sense.
• Saudi Arabia’s US Treasury Holdings Hit Highest Since 2020
US Treasuries accounts for 35% of Saudi Central Bank’s foreign assets as of last month, positioning Saudi to be in amicable relations with the US.
• HK Finance Chief Expects 50% Jump in Airport Capacity by 2035
• Korea Official Sees Need to Lift US Energy Imports, Yonhap Says
Korea is expecting pressure from Trump to buy more from US.
• Bond Vigilantes Upend France’s Debt Market: Credit Weekly
The tight-spending budget failing to pass, worries over France’s deficit are weighing on the countries sovereign borrowing cost.
• Baidu Wins First License to Test Self-Driving Car in Hong Kong
10 Baidu vehicles will operate in Lantau area.
