Markets

Treasury yields shoots upward after a higher-than-expected inflation in January. #CPI rose 0.5% in January compared to the month prior. $DXY gains accordingly. Market sentiment persists, with much of Europe seeing appreciation, $BTC hanging in the $95k range, $SPX in the 6,000 range for almost 3 months now. India continues the gradual descent from September highs.

Headlines

• Trump says interest rates should be lowered to go ‘hand in hand’ with his tariffs

• Wall Street analysts react to U.S. inflation data

January CPI +0.5% MoM

• 10-year Treasury yield shoots above 4.6% after hot CPI report

#US10Y jumps 9bps to 4.63%, #US2Y jumps 8bps to 4.37%

• Dow closes 200 points lower, S&P 500 falls after hot consumer inflation report: Live updates

• India’s Modi to meet with Trump, Musk on Thursday as trade tensions mount

Modi will likely procure more LNG and defense equipment. He will also meet Musk.

• Trump Says He and Putin Agreed to Begin Talks on Ending Ukraine War

Trump says he had a “lengthy and highly productive phone call” with Putin. Meanwhile US Treasury Secretary Bessent is in Ukraine to talk minerals.

• Israel Sees Opening for Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Sites, U.S. Intelligence Warned

The intelligence came in near end of Biden’s term.

• Trump froze a bribery law that previously hit suppliers for Elon Musk’s Tesla

Trump paused the enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act

• Elon Musk-led DOGE seen saving as much as $350 billion a year - Wolfe Research

There is a doge tracker website based on information on X

• OpenAI plans to simplify AI products in new road map for latest models, CEO Altman says

• U.S. posts $129 billion January deficit on calendar shifts, higher outlays

• Chevron to lay off up to 20% of global workforce

Aims to cut costs by $2b through 2026.

• Japan, Australia seek exemption from U.S. steel, aluminum tariffs

• Fed’s Powell sees a ways to go on shrinking Fed holdings

Powell will continue with QT, a process started in June 2022, when inflation was peaking. The Fed has shed $2t from its balance sheet since then.

• Dollar gains on yen as consumer prices rise more than expected

Yen is highly sensitive to the interest rate gap. Treasury yields jumped from the CPI shock.

Markets

Choppy trading in US equities, alternating gains and losses. $TSLA continues to accumulate losses, dropping 6% today. Europe continues to gain, very slowly catching up to the widened gap with the US. EU vows to retaliate tariffs, and also pour money into AI. Figures like Powell and Ken Griffen mention concerns over tariffs - how they will raise prices and erode trust. Treasury yields rose on hawkish comments. 24Q4 Earnings release are more than halfway through.

Headlines

• Sam Altman tells OpenAI staff that board hasn’t ‘seen anything official from Elon’

Sam Altman rejected Musk’s $97b offer, which may not have been official after all.

• Trump’s steel tariffs could trigger broader trade war as EU threatens ‘proportionate countermeasures’

• Ken Griffin says Trump’s ‘bombastic’ trade rhetoric is a mistake that’s eroding trust in the U.S.

“It tears into the minds of CEOs, policymakers that we can’t depend upon America, as our trading partner.”

• European stocks close higher after Trump imposes fresh tariffs

Stoxx 600 closed at record high, +7.15% YTD.

• Ukraine ‘may be Russian someday,’ Trump says, as the U.S. ups the pressure on Kyiv and allies

Trump claims Ukraine agreed to give $500b worth of rare minerals in exchange for ongoing support.

• JD Vance says U.S. will defend American AI and block efforts to weaponize the tech

Says EU are regulating AI too much, and cheap tech subsidized and exported by authoritarian regimes will not pay off.

• Kering slightly beats fourth-quarter forecasts even as sales at embattled Gucci brand plunge 24%

24Q4 revenue -12% YoY.

• Meta stock closes higher for 17th straight session

Analysts praise its positioning in the AI space.

• Dollar falls as tariff concerns ease, Fed’s Powell stays patient on rate cuts

Says it was not the role of Fed to comment on policy, but to react to how it will impact the economy.

• Trump’s tariffs lift US metals prices but underscore production struggles

Whether domestic production can rise in time is the question.

• Goldman Sachs ends IPO diversity policy citing legal developments

GS would only take public companies which had at least two diverse board members

• JPMorgan sees investment banking fees rising by mid-teens percentage in first quarter

• EU says AI race ‘far from over’ as bloc pledges 50-billion-euro investment boost

Including previous funding brings total to $200b

• Trump says Treasury Secretary Bessent is going to Ukraine as U.S. has ‘little to show’ for aid sent

Markets

Broad gains in the market. Especially $Gold. Sooner and broader tariffs are fueling the commodity past $2,900 per ounce. As per NY Fed survey of expected inflation, 1Y, 3Y stayed still at 3%, while 5Y rose 0.3%p, also reaching 3%. As inflation measures continue to disappoint, Morgan Stanley reduced the outlook of number of rate cuts to one 25bps cut. Tariffs on steel imports boosted relevant stocks like $NUE. AI continued to fuel the market up. $TSLA continues to descend from the Dec 17 highs. ex-US equities continue their slow steady winning streak.

Headlines

• Elon Musk investor group submits $97.4 billion bid for OpenAI - WSJ

OpenAI is potentially worth $300b as per SoftBank deal.

• Wall Street ends higher on AI strength; steelmakers climb on Trump tariff threat

$NVDA +2.84%, $AVGO +4.49%, $PLTR +5.27%, $TSLA -3.04%

• US containerized imports hit record high in January

Chinese imports grew 10% YoY in January. Trump imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese goods starting Feb 4.

• US judge keeps his block on Trump federal buyout plan in place for now

65k federal workers sign up for Trump’s buyout program despite unions urge not to. US District Judge George O’Toole in Boston halted the implementation for now.

• Coffee in New York jumps 6% to new record amid ‘panic buying’

Hot and dry weather forecast and low coffee inventory in Brazil causes further price hikes

• Bond traders waver as Trump questions US government debt figures

• Gold prices hit record high as Trump tariffs fuel haven demand

$2900/ounce

• Dollar gains, others slip on tariff threats

• Trump’s sooner, broader tariffs risk upside inflation, curbing rate-cut hopes

Morgan Stanley expects one rate cut of 25bp in 2025.

• Trump, Musk actions put America at risk of ‘a form of default,’ former Treasury chiefs warn

• Musk suggests closer scrutiny of Fed as Powell prepares to face Congress

“All aspects of the government must be fully transparent and accountable to the people. No exceptions, including, if not especially, the Federal Reserve.”

• Meta Starts Eliminating Jobs in Shift to Find AI Talent

Meta is letting go around 3,600 low performers with 16weeks of severance.

• Disney removes two DEI programs from annual filing as more companies scale back diversity commitments

Disney’s “Reimagine Tomorrow” and “The Disney Look” initiatives were scrapped in the latest 10-K filing.

• T-Mobile launches beta for Starlink connection. Stock surges.

Super Bowl ad featured the $TMUS - Starlink partnership

Headlines

• Deepseek’s AI model is ‘the best work’ out of China but the hype is ‘exaggerated,’ Google Deepmind CEO says

Says there were no technological advancements in the product. Claims Gemini 2.0 is more efficient.

• Egypt announces emergency Arab summit after Trump’s Gaza plan infuriates key allies

• Trump says he has spoken to Putin about ending the Ukraine war

• China’s consumer inflation at 5-month high, producer deflation persists

• Japan PM Ishiba, after meeting Trump, voices optimism over averting tariffs

“Japan had the highest foreign direct investment in the US in 2023 at $783b”

• From bridges to oil refineries and defense, robots fix on aging U.S. infrastructure

Gecko produces robots equipped with AI and sensors capable of detecting defects.

• ‘No thanks’, white South Africans turn down Trump’s immigration offer

• Trump says he expects Musk to find billions in Pentagon waste

• Investors await new inflation data amid tariff concerns: What to know this week

78 S&P 500 companies will release earnings this week.

• Hidden AI stocks set to rally amid DeepSeek’s breakthrough, analysts predict

• TKer: Even with tariffs looming, the stock market continues to trade near record highs

• Musk brings his business playbook to Washington: Move fast and claim victory

• Apple could launch a new iPhone SE and PowerBeats Pro 2 on February 11

• Starbucks is giving away free coffee on Monday

Starbucks instructed employees to write messages on cups

Markets

Earnings and Trump’s tariffs dominated the agenda this week. Starting off Monday with $IXIC -1.20% and $SPX -0.76%, US equities recovered the dip through Thursday from sound earnings and many positive outlooks. On Friday Trump continued to fire tariff threats. Jobs report were mixed, but consumer sentiment data from U Michigan showed a sharp incline in inflation outlook. These factors dragged US equity indices down to net negative for the week. 4.49% gain for $HSI. Since the January 2024 lows, the index has gradually risen 38%. $BTC was below $100k for the better part of the week. For Treasuries, 10Y and 2Y showed divergence. The yields of latter gained noticeably from disappointing inflation metrics.

Headlines

• Federal Judge Blocks Elon Musk’s DOGE From Treasury System

• Trump Is Changing the World Order With Unprecedented Speed

As federal funding freezes, payments to individuals, agencies, constructions are getting uncertain.

• Europe’s Unloved Stocks Are Suddenly on Top of the World

DAX, FTSE, CAC has outperformed US equity indices YTD. Doesn’t mention much innate appeal of European equities. More like stopped being terrible is the main logic - rates are falling faster the the US, political uncertainty in France is abating, valuation has deviated too much from the US, war between Ukraine and Russia seems like it’s going to end.

• The Tequila Boom Is Over. The Tequila Price War Has Begun.

Vodka and tequila are the top 2 most popular spirit in the US. Casamigos and Patron have been lowering prices for more than a year. Trump’s tariffs against Mexico could be another problem.

• Trump signs order to cut funding for South Africa over land policy, ICJ case

South Africa received $440m in assistance in 2023 from the US. A bill allowing an easier expropriation of land by the state has been signed. Washington commented willingness to accept those largely Dutch and French descendant farmers and families as refugees.

• British junior minister sacked by PM Starmer over WhatsApp messages

Junior minister insulted other members of parliament via WhatsApp.

• Hamas frees three hostages, Israel begins releasing Palestinians

• Protesters denounce Trump immigration policies outside his Florida golf club

• Iran currency plunges to record lows amid escalating U.S. tensions

Inflation rate is 35% in Iran. Iranians have been turning to USD, gold, crypto instead, causing further destabilization of the rial.

• Trump administration backs big arms sales to Israel, defying Congress

US government approves military sales to Israel worth $7.4b

• Baltic nations cut ties to Russian power grid, prepare to link with EU

The disconnection of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania

• Boeing warns moon rocket program employees of layoffs happened Saturday.

• Trump, headed to Super Bowl LIX, has long and tangled relationship with football

He will be the first incumbent to attend the Super Bowl.

• Billionaire Musk says not interested in acquiring TikTok

“I do not acquire companies in general. I usually build companies from scratch.”

• Microsoft’s Bill Gates: Steve Jobs was a genius in this area

• Team Trump’s fight to convince Wall Street that Musk’s DOGE is good for markets

• What happened to Nissan? And what happens next if a Honda merger is truly dead?

Honda looks to Nissan as a less reputable partner/subsidiary that needs drastic cost-cutting.

Markets

University of Michigan consumer survey showed a sharp uptick in 1-Year expected inflation - from 3.3% last month to 4.3%. Trump continued talking tariff. While he did not mention countries, EU said they are willing to cut the 10% tax on car imports from the US, to be more aligned with that of the US, that is, 2.5%. Yields rose, dollar gained, equities fell. $BTC hovered below the $100k line. $Gold continued to ascend, rising 7.7% in the past month.

Headlines

• Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq slide as inflation, tariff fears push stocks to another losing week

• Newman: Trumpers are souring on Elon Musk

As musk is raids one gov agency after another, Republican shows diminishing support. Everyone wants to get healthier and slimmer, but diet control and working out isn’t fun.

• Meta prepares for layoffs on Monday -internal memo

Notice will be rolling out Monday next week. Meanwhile, Meta will continue to hire more ML engineers.

• Trump says US Steel will get investment from Nippon Steel, instead of being bought by it

Ishiba says Japanese technology will be provided to US Steel.

• Treasuries Retain Losses as Jobs Report Leaves Fed Path Intact

The policy-sensitive 2YR Treasuries rose 7bps to 4.29%.

• Tesla stock posts weekly loss as slump in China deliveries caps volatile week

$TSLA rose 125% from late-October to mid-December, and fell 25% from then till now. Deliveries of Model 3 and Y made in China fell 32.6% from December.

• Oil Posts Third Weekly Drop as Trump Tariffs Hit Demand Outlook

Oil price fell 5% in the last 30days, despite heightened tariffs looming over the commodity, due to fears of slowed economic activity worldwide.

• Trump Says He Discussed LNG Exports With Japan’s Ishiba

Trumps says Japan will import more LNG from the US, work on a joint venture on an Alaskan energy project.

• SEC Says Game Service Roblox Part of ‘Active Investigation’

The video game company is under probe.

• Six million people could die from HIV and AIDS if US funding stops, UN agency warns

• BofA to buy $9 billion residential mortgage loan from Canada’s TD, source says

Toronto-Dominion Bank

• S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats welcomes Erie Indemnity, Eversource Energy, FactSet Research Systems

The index, rebalanced to 69 constituents, tracks companies that raised dividends for at least 25 consecutive years.

• Trump stops Biden’s daily intelligence briefings

• L’Oreal looks to U.S. ‘land of opportunity’ as China disappoints

Markets

ISM Services PMI fell to 52.8 from 54.0, bringing yields lowers and weakening the dollar. 5% rebound in $NVDA mitigates losses in $AMZN, $GOOG, $TSLA, flatlining the index. More earnings got released. China came back from New Years.

Headlines

• US Postal Service Reverses Decision to Halt China Shipments

USPS will accept all inbound parcel from China. US government is working out a way to tax parcels under $800.

• Exit Polls Predict Modi Winning India’s Capital After Decades

Modi’s party BJP lost majority vote last year, but may win majority in the Delhi assembly.

• Trump’s Gaza Takeover Gets Israeli Approval, Global Scorn

• Ford Sees Sharp Profit Drop as Trump Tariff, EV Threats Loom

“25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada would have a major impact”

• Xi Has Squandered His Most Powerful Trade War Weapon

“In a global trade war, the economy with a powerful consumer base wins.” - the Americans.

• Stock market today: S&P 500 ends higher on falling Treasury yields, jump in Nvidia

Apple cut losses to flatline at close after news of China probe.

• Qualcomm results, forecast top expectations as AI drives smartphone sales

• UnitedHealth raises concerns over Bill Ackman’s post on X with SEC

UnitedHealth fell 1.5% after the post.

• Google scraps diversity-based hiring targets, WSJ reports

• With US House stymied, Senate Republicans prepare to move on Trump agenda

• Gold prices remain near fresh record highs on trade war fears, Gaza uncertainty

• Gold demand hits record levels as central banks buy at ’eye-watering’ pace

Climbed above $2,900

• Google opens its most powerful AI models to everyone, the next stage in its virtual agent push

Gemini2.0

• AMD shares drop more than 6%, close at lowest since 2023 on disappointing data center revenue

• Argentina to withdraw from WHO after Trump exit, citing ‘deep differences’

The US left WHO last month

Markets

Markets rebound despite a series of tariffs. Sentiment eases slightly after the Mexican concession. China’s retaliatory tariff of 15% on select American goods didn’t faze investors, yet. S&P 500 companies that released earnings grew on average 16.3% in 24Q4 as per FactSet. $GOOG cloud revenue of $11.9b disappointed when consensus was $12.1b. The market was earlier disappointed in $MSFT $40b cloud revenue lagging behind $41.1b. $PLTR soared 24%. $BTC dips below $100k again. Yields fell. Dollar fell.

Headlines

• China retaliates with additional tariffs of up to 15% on select U.S. imports starting Feb. 10

15% on coal and LNG, 10% on crude oil and many other.

• Alphabet shares drop 7% on company revenue miss

Cloud revenue of $11.9b disappoints when consensus was $12.1b

• Palantir soars 24% to record high as AI powers strong earnings and guidance

• ‘Strongman’ leaders of Europe don’t look so strong anymore

The nationalist-populist leaders of Hungary, Slovakia, Germany and France were expected to see some boost since Trump inauguration - but it’s not that simple.

• Senators float resolution to overturn Biden methane fee rule

The methane fee was mandated by the 2022 IRA to force oil and gas companies to greenhouse gas emissions. Trumps wants America to drill.

• Chipotle assesses fallout from Mexico tariffs, forecasts tepid annual sales growth

$CMG depends on supplies, including half of their Avocados, from Mexico.

• U.S. Begins Migrant Flights to Guantanamo Bay

The new administration plans for the naval base in Cuba to hold 30k immigrants.

• Trump Order Set to Ban Transgender Girls and Women From Female School Sports

• Trump Campaigned on Ending Foreign Entanglements. Now He Wants to Own Gaza.

Trump was previously vocal about shrinking America’s role abroad. He talked about Greenland, the Panama Canal. Now it’s Gaza.

• The Fed could find itself in a policy Catch-22 if tariffs spike inflation and slow growth

Markets

The tariff effect reverberates through the market. Trump seems to moderates his stance - as the month postponement of the tariff against Mexico. Equities invariably fall. $PLTR shines bright amid selloff. $BTC reclaims $100k mark after a brief trip down to $94k levels.

Headlines

• Stock market today: S&P 500 ends above session lows on easing trade war jitters

• Stock market today: S&P 500, Nasdaq sink, Dow claws back as Mexico gets Trump tariff reprieve

Main cause: Trump’s tariffs against Canada and China.

• Palantir forecasts 2025 revenue above estimates on AI strength, shares surge

The company’s customer count grew 43% in 24Q4

• Trump warns China of higher tariffs ahead of talks

• Trump pauses Mexico tariffs for one month after agreement on border troops

Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaun will send 10k Mexican troops to the borders to stop flow of fentanyl, and illegal immigrants to the US.

• Trump signs order establishing a sovereign wealth fund that he says could buy TikTok

Such vehicle is generally used by smaller nations with vast natural resources and fiscal surpluses - like China, Norway, and Singapore.

• Vanguard announces fee cuts for nearly 100 funds, including ETFs with billions of dollars in assets

• New tariffs could raise home prices and sideline potential buyers

Homebuilder association asked Trump to exempt building materials from tariffs. Oil companies voiced the need for exemption for Canadian oil earlier this week.

• In a switch, Trump approves of the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates steady

Said “Holding the rates at this point was the right thing to do.”

• Auto stocks slip on fears Trump tariffs will harm industry

$TSLA fell 5.2% likely due to its using parts manufactured in Canada and Mexico.

• Nvidia stock falls as Trump’s tariffs send shockwaves across the market

Last week $NVDA was hurt from the possibility of sanctions over H20 chips, which were made to be China-export compliant.

• Trump tariffs mean Canadian whisky importers may pass costs to Americans

Markets

Another week of global equities catching up to the US. The average gain of $FTSE, $CAC 40, $DAX indices was +7.7% for the past month, while $SPX recorded +2.7%. A DeepSeek induced selloff on Monday for Big tech, with $NVDA dropping 17%. US indices saw higher volatility throughout the week. Major firms reported 24Q4 earnings. Where for AI, meeting analyst expectations is the baseline, $MSFT suffered, and $META, $AAPL, $TSLA did alright. A mix of sentiment for Apple exists - stalling iPhone outlook, while still being the king of hardware. Information Technology fell 5%, while Telecommunication Services, Healthcare, Financials, Consumer Staples rose more than 2% each. US treasury yields invariably fell, while dollar gained, potentially due to Trump’s America First policies.

Headlines

• New tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China announced by President Trump

Order was signed on Saturday, and will come into effect on Tuesday.

• Reaction to Trump’s imposition of tariffs on Mexico, Canada, China

American oil companies voices need for tariff exclusion for crude oil.

• Mexican president orders retaliatory tariffs against U.S

• French PM urges ECB to cut rates to boost growth

Contends inflation is back to normal, and the rate-cut is necessary for competition with China and the US. ECB cut rates on Thursday from 3.0% to 2.75%.

• Trump says U.S. carries out airstrikes on Islamic State in Somalia

Trump says Islamic terrorists were in a cave in Somalia

• Crashed US Army Black Hawk unit was responsible for doomsday readiness

The mission was “continuity of government” - a regular, operational training.

• Analysis-Trump’s oil tariffs a boost for European and Asian refiners

• Pump prices set to rise as Trump tariffs hit Canadian, Mexican oil

• Trump’s Pentagon says it will ‘rotate’ out some media from offices

Four media outlets including NYT will be removed their office space in the Pentagon.

• DeepSeek’s hardware spend could be as high as $500 million, new report estimates

Alex Karp also said he doesn’t believe the $5.6 figure on a recent CNBC interview.

• Singapore says U.S. firms should comply with export controls following DeepSeek chip questions

$NVDA spokesperson told CNBC that the chips DeepSeek used were export-compliant.

• Gaza ceasefire sees its smoothest exchange yet of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners

Israeli Prime Minister will meet Trump on the coming Tuesday.

Markets

White House provides reason to reverse. Market stumbled as investors digested news of tariffs against Canada, Mexico, China. The policies will be available for public inspection Saturday. $IXIC once reaching above +1.0%, dipped to negative. The rest of the world including Germany, France, India, has seen incremental gains throughout the week. Volatility of US equity market was higher than these markets. $AAPL returned the after-market gains of yesterday. $META rose for the 10th consecutive day. $TSLA continues to march after rosy comments from the earnings call.

Headlines

• Trump tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China begin Saturday, White House says

25% tariff on Canada and Mexico, 10% tariff on China in retaliation for the illegal fentanyl that they have sourced.

• DeepSeek’s hardware spend could be as high as $500 million, new report estimates

DeepSeek said the cost was $5.6m. $500m is still great compared to Big tech’s spendings on AI.

• Dow closes 300 points lower Friday as White House says tariffs will start Saturday: Live updates

• Palantir CEO says China’s DeepSeek shows that U.S. needs ‘all-country effort’ in AI

• Key Fed measure shows core inflation at 2.8%, in line with expectations

• Trump Media gifts DJT shares to FBI pick Kash Patel, Linda McMahon and president’s son

$DJT closed $30 per share, putting the gifted sum to $779k

• Atlassian closes at highest since 2022 after reporting better-than-expected earnings, revenue outlook

Atlassian services Trello, Jira, and Confluence

• Nasdaq 100 celebrates 40 years: Is crypto the next big driver for gains?

• Why this 50-year-old restaurant chain has a stock that’s smoking Nvidia’s

Chili’s comp grew 31% in 24Q4

• New inflation reading reinforces Fed’s go-slow strategy

2.8% is in line with expectations but far from Fed target 2%.

• Steel, Aluminum Tariffs Will Impact Millions of Tons of Imports

US imported most steel from Canada, Brazil and Mexico last year.

• Traders Load US-Bound Planes With Gold and Silver in Tariff Bet

Gold futures surged since election of Trump. Volumes have exported out of Switzerland, BoE.

• Meta Posts Longest Rally Since 2015 as Wall St Cheers AI Bet

• 2 charts show why markets are skittish about Trump’s tariff policy

Chart 1: Customs duty revenue as a percentage of goods imports.

• Apple earnings top Wall Street forecasts while iPhone, China sales fall short

Markets

Big Tech earnings week. $MSFT fell 6% despite beating estimates. Azure segment which the AI business falls under, wasn’t mind-blowing. As Trump toys with the idea of a 25% tax on Canada and Mexico, the dollar continued to advance. DeepSeek shock seems to have calmed down.

Headlines

• Stock market today: S&P 500 closes higher but Microsoft stumble keeps lid on gains

• OpenAI eyes massive investment round valuing it at $340 billion

Softbank to lead the round investing around $20b

• Indexes end higher as investors weigh key corporate earnings

Tesla to roll out cheaper models in 25H1, autonomous ride-hailing in June.

• 67 believed dead after American Airlines plane collides with Army helicopter

• Factbox-Deadly US airline crashes since 2001

• Italy’s regulator blocks Chinese AI app DeepSeek on data protection

• Trump to announce 25% tariffs on Canada, Mexico

• Markets (and the world) on edge as Trump’s tariff deadline approaches

Trump reiterated his intent speaking to reporters at the White House. The self-imposed deadline is Feb 1. “We may or may not. We’re going to make that determination probably tonight.”

• US military deportation flight likely cost more than first class

The one way ticket to Guatemala on a C-17 military transport aircraft is $4,675 per immigrant.

• Amazon reportedly boosts ad-spending on X in major U-turn: WSJ

• Apple to report Q1 earnings a week after stock hit with multiple downgrades

• Visa profit jumps on strong holiday spending

• Meta, Microsoft downplay DeepSeek threat

Claims Chinese AI will benefit their companies as well.

• UPS scales back on Amazon deliveries: It ‘just doesn’t make sense for us’

UPS will cut back on Amazon deliveries by 50% by 2026.

• Fed’s wait-and-see approach likely won’t be shaken by new GDP and inflation numbers

Markets

Hawkish Powell. CPI was 2.4% in October last year, but inched up to 2.9% this January. IT dragged down indices falling -0.8%. $NVDA resumed slide shedding half of yesterday’s rebound. $TSLA says FSD will arrive June. $META beats estimates, $MSFT misses. East Asia celebrates Lunar New Year.

Headlines

• Powell Says Fed Doesn’t Need to Be in a Hurry to Lower Rates

Fed keeps rate. “The committee is very much in the mode of waiting to see what policies are enacted. Trump replied on Truth Social “Because Jay Powell and the Fed failed to stop the problem they created with Inflation, I will do it by unleashing American Energy production, slashing Regulation, rebalancing International Trade, and reigniting American Manufacturing”

• Tesla (TSLA) Q4 Earnings 2025: Live Results, Elon Musk Comments - Bloomberg

• Tesla fourth-quarter results miss estimates as automotive revenue drops 8%

Automotive revenue drops 8%. Unsupervised FSD to come June. Discussions to license FSD. Optimus to work at factories. Profit misses estimates. Hardware 3 customers will need an upgrade for FSD to work. Digital assets value surges to $1.1b from $184m

• Trump Media surges after expansion into financial services including crypto and ETFs

The finance division Truth.Fi will venture into ETFs and crypto

• Meta shares pop after company beats on revenue

24Q4 sales jumps 21%, while net income grew 49%. Meta AI chatbot surpasses 700m monthly active users. Zuckerberg estimates 1b this year. Virtual reality segment sees a record -$4.97b in losses.

• Meta to Pay $25 Million to End Trump Lawsuit Over Jan. 6 Ban

$22m will go to the presidential library. $3m will go to lawyers.

• Meta CEO Zuckerberg: too early to predict DeepSeek impact on infrastructure

Shift to inference does not mean a reduction in overall computing, Zuckerberg said.

• Microsoft shares slip on light quarterly Azure growth

Microsoft beat estimates but reported a softer forecast. Azure revenue grew 31% YoY, down from 33%.

• DeepSeek’s global success received by Chinese with pride and glee

• Sensitive DeepSeek data exposed to web, Israeli cyber firm says

Million line of data including digital keys and user prompts were left unsecured. DeepSeek quickly handled the situation.

Markets

Equities rebound from a DeepSeek-induced selloff the day prior. Yesterday shares of $NVDA fell -17%, dropping it to the third place in market cap. $IXIC fell -3%. Steve Cohen from Point72 shared that Chinese advancement in AI would accelerate development. Minor uptick in yields prior to Jan 29 FOMC. Market anticipates 99.5% chance of rates being kept steady.

Headline Digest

• ASML Orders Beat Estimates as Concern Over DeepSeek’s AI Grows

$7.4b order bookings in 24Q4 compared to estimate of $3.5b

• Nvidia’s $589 Billion DeepSeek Rout Is Largest in Market History

On Monday Nvidia praised DeepSeek’s performance, while adding that inference still requires significant amounts of Nvidia GPUs

• Microsoft Probing If DeepSeek-Linked Group Improperly Obtained OpenAI Data

David Sacks, Trump’s AI and Crypto Czar, said there is substantial evidence of distillation whereby an AI model uses the outputs of another model to inherit similar capabilities.

• Trump’s Tariffs Hit US Growth Before, and Threaten to Again

Analysis of tariffs levied in the first term of Trump, showed reduction in real income and less US factory jobs.

• India Investors Eye Budget Relief After $600 Billion Stock Rout

India investors anticipate federal spending to support infrastructure, manufacturing, rural development and defense. Since the high-point on September 26th, India equity indices fell 12% in the following four months.

• Bets on Bigger Treasuries Rally Are Booming Before Fed Decision

Bond traders anticipate signals for a March rate-cut in tomorrow’s comment.

• Apple and SpaceX Link Up to Support Starlink Satellite Network on iPhones

This software update will provide an alternative to Apple’s in-house satellite-comm service. T-Mobile previously only mentioned Samsung smartphones to be connected to Musk’s satellites.

• Tesla investors want Elon Musk to answer questions about ‘salute,’ role in Trump White House

Tesla to report 24Q4 earnings on Wednesday. 100+ inquires on Musk’s involvement in politics filled Tesla’s questionnaire forum, including time allocation.

• Trump administration offering buyouts to nearly all federal workers

Those who don’t like the full return-to-office, can take the “deferred resignation” which includes a payout equal to 8 months pay. Emailing “Resign” is all it would take to accept the buyout.

B↑2📆 Markets

Indices recover from last week’s slump. Following the rebound on Wednesday from positive CPI readings, Big Tech continued to climb. $INTC jumped 9.3% on rumors that a takeover could take place. As $BTC ascends to $105k, $MSTR gained 8%. Meanwhile Trump launched a Trump-branded meme coin that reached $5.5b. US10YR ended at 4.62%, at pre-PPI release levels.

B↑2📆 Headline Digest

• Bank of Japan Is Set to Raise Interest Rates, Trump Permitting

• Trump Considers Extension as TikTok Shutdown Deadline Approaches

Trump “most likely” to give 90-days for a deal. Perplexity submits bid.

• Plastic Surgery Boom Lures South Korea’s Overworked Doctors

Medical tourists reached 600k in 2023.

• Solana surges 12% on launch of Trump-themed meme coin, ether falls

• Trump launches his own $TRUMP meme coin, price soars overnight

• Ceasefire between Israel and Hamas will go into effect Sunday morning, officials say

Netanyahu says the country is treating the ceasefire as temporary and that he has Trump’s support.

• Vanguard to pay more than $100 million to SEC over violations involving target date retirement funds

TDFs follow a glide path that determines the allocation between stocks and bonds over time. They are usually offered with low fees, especially in retirement plans. For example, a 2060 TDF is designed for individuals planning to retire in 2060. Lowering the minimum institutional investment amount enabled SMEs, previously using retail TDFs, to redeem and move to institutional TDFs with lower fees. This sudden redemption caused the remaining investors in retail TDFs to bear unexpected tax burdens.

• Trump flies on Air Force plane to Washington as Biden sticks to tradition