Markets
The tech sector $XLK fell 3.6%, dragging down indices. $NVDA’s earnings call aired last night. Decent, but investors sold at the news. Weekly jobless claims rose to 242k, fueling recession concerns. Trump doubled down on tariffs, with new ones on Mexico and Canada starting next Tuesday. $BTC saw a major drop, now trading at $83k. $Gold slipped below $2,900/ounce.
Headlines
• Stock market today: Nasdaq, S&P 500 sell-off as Nvidia sinks 8%, Trump reiterates tariff plans
PCE is getting released tomorrow.
• Weekly jobless claims jump to 242,000, more than expected in latest sign of economic softening
First of the two important economic metrics got released.
• Trump says Mexico, Canada tariffs will start March 4, plus additional 10% on China
Reiterates reciprocal tariffs on April 2nd.
Huang says “demand for Blackwell is extraordinary”. Unless something mind-blowing came along, investors would have sold at the news anyway, especially in this climate. What people need is a catalyst to fall, it can be anything.
• Nvidia CEO Huang says AI has to do ‘100 times more’ computation now than when ChatGPT was released
• OpenAI Unveils GPT-4.5 Model
Access is currently limited to Pro users. Claims the model gets more facts right, is more emotionally responsive and makes conversations better.
• Trump Declares: ‘No NATO for Ukraine’
“It’s not gonna happen, it’s just not gonna happen. That’s what started this whole thing.”
• Mortgage rates hit 2025 low as economic jitters mount
30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.76% from 6.85%. US10Y yields dropped 8% YTD.
• Pending home sales drop to the lowest level on record in January
Pending sales are signed contracts for existing homes, gives near-term outlook on home sales
• Meta plans to release standalone Meta AI app, CNBC reports
Another chatbot en route.
• Why Tesla’s stock has given up nearly all of its Trump election gains
Shares fell 40% from December highs. Some blame his participation in the politics
• Dell forecasts upbeat full-year profit on cost cuts, robust AI server demand
• Qatar attracts VC fund managers to Doha with its $1 billion ‘fund of funds’
I would have thought $1b is child’s money to VC fund managers.
Markets
The US market falling behind didn’t stop Europe and China from catching up. Empowered by the strides in AI, $HSI sharply rose again, by 3.27%. Europe also rose by more than a full percent. Meanwhile, $BTC continued descending, to below $85k mark. The first cabinet meeting was held, where Musk expressed confidence in reducing fiscal expenditure by 15%. $NVDA reported strong earnings, beating estimates.
Headlines
• Nvidia’s Bumper Sales Show AI Bonanza’s Strength
Sales rose 78% to $39b. Projects $43b, ahead of estimates of $42b.
• Salesforce sees annual results below estimates as Agentforce adoption lags
The slower adoption of its AI platform is deemed the reason.
• Trump says Zelenskyy to visit U.S. to sign critical rare minerals deal on Friday
• The Federal Reserve’s favorite recession indicator is flashing a danger sign again
US10Y is below US3M.
• Amazon unveils revamped Alexa with AI features for $19.99 per month, free for Prime members
Alexa is powered by generative Ai.
• S&P 500 ekes out gain on Wednesday, ending four-day run of losses: Live updates
In Trump’s first cabinet meeting he said tariffs against Mexico and Canada are underway.
• ‘Is Anyone Unhappy With Elon?’ Trump Defends Musk at First Cabinet Meeting
Musk stated his confidence in reducing the $7t annual fiscal expenditure down by $1t
• Iran Has Enough Highly Enriched Uranium for Six Nuclear Weapons
• Alibaba makes AI video generation model free to use globally
Alibaba is open sourcing that are a part of its Wan2.1 series.
Markets
When the US slips, all else slips. US equities continued to relinquish their ever-high valuation. Today marked the 4th straight day of losses for $IXIC, 3 of which were more than a full percent. $TSLA, with a steep reversal in European January sales, sank 8%. $BTC, which has consistently been trading in the $95-105k range, dipped below the $90k line. Yields fell to the lowest level since the November election as consumer confidence metrics brew worries of recession.
Headlines
• Ukraine Agrees to Mineral Rights Deal with U.S.
Seems like it’s much less than $500b
• Morning Bid: Bond yields slide as US growth fears, tech rout snowball
The US2Y yields fell to lowest levels since November election.
• Stock market today: S&P 500 falls as slump in consumer confidence stokes worry
Consumer consumer index released by The Conference Board says the index fell to 98.3 this month.
• Judge Overturns Trump Order Blocking Refugee Admissions
In Sep 2024, Biden issued a statement US will welcome 125,000 refugees in 2025.
• House Republican Budget Plan Runs Into Trouble Ahead of Vote
The 218-215 lead in the House is narrow
• Russia’s Withering Economy Is Tricky Place to Do Deals—Even for Trump
Ruble is strengthening. Putin offered joint projects exploring the rare earth deposits.
• Trump, Not Putin, Forces Europe to Get Serious About Defense
Keir Starmer to raise military expense from 2.3% of GDP to ultimately 3.0%
• 21 Civil Servants Who Worked With Musk’s Government Reform Team Resign
“We will not use our skills as technologists to compromise core government systems, jeopardize Americans’ sensitive data, or dismantle critical public services,” wrote the resigners in a letter addressed to the White House
• Taiwan Detains Ship and Chinese Crew After Undersea Cable Severed
• Tesla stock sinks as Europe sales tank on rival offerings, Musk blowback
January sales in Europe slid from 18k last year to 10k, while overall EV sales jumped 37%. EV sales jumped the highest in Germany, UK and the Netherlands. $TSLA fell 8%
• Workday beats estimates for revenue and profit, stock jumps
The HR and finance software maker’s focus on AI boosts sales.
• Nvidia to report earnings amid infrastructure spending, DeepSeek concerns
Analysts will look for queues of waning AI hardware consumption from Big Tech.
• Bitcoin drops to a 3-month low below $90,000 in risk-off move
• US oil futures climb slightly after API reports surprise draw in crude stockpiles
Markets
Correction continues as news flow in. $AAPL plans for a $500b investment in Texas, while also increasing investment in $NVDA ‘s plant in the States. Pressure mounting on AI and chip making as it was disclosed that $MSFT had cut off some data center leases. Semiconductor stocks were hammered, with Nvidia, Broadcom, Qualcomm, AMD all sliding around 3%. At the UN was a rare sight where the US sided with Russia and North Korea objecting to a condemnation directed towards Russia for starting the war. $BRK rose 4% with positive earnings, $PLTR fell 10% with more investors realizing profits.
Headlines
• Apple to invest $500bn in US expansion, adding 20,000 jobs and AI facilities
The new facility will be in Houston, Texas.
• Microsoft data center leases slowing, analysts say, raising investor attention
$MSFT canceled leases totaling several hundred megawatts.
• U.S. Votes Against U.N. Resolution Condemning Russia for Ukraine War
US sides with Russia, Belarus and North Korea, at the UN.
• Trump Backs Musk’s Email Asking Federal Workers to List Accomplishments
“If you don’t answer, like you’re sort of semi-fired, or you’re fired because a lot of people are not answering because they don’t even exist,”
• Starbucks to Lay Off More Than 1,000 Workers
• Trump says tariffs on Canada and Mexico ‘will go forward’
• Palantir drops 10% for worst day since May as investors continue dumping onetime market favorite
Shares fell 24% in the last 5 days
• How AI is speeding the mining of valuable metals needed to power the clean economy
Kobold Metals, VerAI and Earth AI will let AI look for deposits, and drill a tennis-ball sized hole to verify.
• Anthropic says it’s released its ‘most intelligent’ AI model yet as competition ramps up
Claude 3.7 Sonnet. While reasoning feature in the market will pause to think, this model will reason while continually talking.
• US tells federal agencies they can ignore Musk ultimatum
Some agencies told its workers to ignore, some to answer.
• Analysis-Chinese rivals to Musk’s Starlink accelerate race to dominate satellite internet
China launched 263 LEO satellites in 2024. Shanghai based SpaceSail is in talk with countries to extend operation.
• Stock market today: S&P 500 falls as Nvidia slides ahead of earnings
$SPX fell 0.5%.
• Oil settles higher on fresh Iran sanctions, Iraq commitment to OPEC+
Some say peace talk in Ukraine will still pressure oil prices.
• Macron Corrects Trump on Ukraine Aid During White House Talks
Macron says only 40% of aid provided by the French is in the form of a loan. 60% was out-of-pocket.
Markets
Markets took a breather last week. Even the European market rally continued since year start came to a halt. US equities were also impacted with the biggest decline on Friday, due to further confirmation on inflation impacting the economy. Or investors just began climbing out of the ship from ever-high valuation. $KOSPI and $HSI were notable exceptions. The former continued rebounding from depressed levels, the latter on the back of rate cuts and the new AI focus. $Gold continued to gain, pushing past $2,950/ounce.
Headlines
• Nvidia earnings and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge: What to know this week
$NVDA to report earnings on Wednesday. Core PCE release on Friday, second estimate of 4Q GDP on Thursday.
• Why Trump’s immigration policy ‘deserves more attention’ from investors
The US received an average of 3m people during 2022-2024. The numbers are expected to fall below 1m in 2025 and could contribute to an higher inflation.
• How Trump’s federal worker layoffs will hit beyond Washington
75k federal employees took the buyout offer. The layoff of 200k people with less tenure and employment protection are rolling out.
• The industry hit hardest by DOGE cuts so far (hint: it’s not the media)
Development and consulting firms.
• Germany’s conservatives win election, as far-right AfD leaps to second place, exit polls show
The alliance between Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union won 28.5% of votes. AfD won 20%, Scholz’s Social Democratic Party won 16.5%
• Ukraine’s Zelenskyy says he’d be ready to give up presidency if it brought peace and NATO membership
• Israel sends tanks into West Bank for first time in decades, says fleeing Palestinians can’t return
• Pope Francis remains critical and has ‘slight’ kidney issue, Vatican says
• Warren Buffett amasses more cash and sells more stock, but doesn’t explain why in annual letter
“Berkshire shareholders can rest assured that we will forever deploy a substantial majority of their money in equities – mostly American equities although many of these will have international operations of significance,”
• Zelensky: U.S. Aid to Ukraine is a Grant, Not Debt
• Israeli Jets Over Nasrallah’s Funeral in Beirut
The funeral of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was held in Beirut, Lebanon.
Markets
Markets The US market plummeted due to concerns over the economy. Starting with $WMT reporting gloomy guidance, hinting at pressure on even the most price-sensitive corners of the economy. The Michigan survey reported a similar decline in consumer sentiment and a pessimistic inflation outlook. $SPX steadily fell throughout the trading session. Meanwhile, Trump doubled down on his stance to levy “interesting” tariffs. Optimism in China is brewing, as AI comes into the belated limelight. $HSI rose 4%.
Headlines
• ‘The tariffing is going to be interesting’: Donald Trump caps off a week of tariff threats
Trump re-confirmed the incoming tariffs.
• Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq sink as consumers start to sour on US economy
Michigan Consumer Sentiment index saw a sharp decline in Feb, to 64.7 compared to 71.7 in Jan.
• SEC commissioner Hester Peirce promises ‘more clarity’ for crypto industry
• Dow drops 700 points for worst day of 2025 so far on new fears about economic growth: Live updates
Michigan 5-year inflation outlook was 3.5%, the highest since 1995.
• Beijing embraces DeepSeek to lead AI adoption as it looks for new growth drivers
iShares MSCI China ETF($MCHI) rose 19% YTD. Xi greeting DeepSeek founder Liang Wenfeng was a clear signal.
• U.S. could cut Ukraine’s access to Starlink internet services over minerals, say sources
The meeting between Zelenskyy and Keith Kellogg involved threats to shutoff Starlink if a deal on minerals were not reached. The world has been and will be cruel …
• Shortage of Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Ozempic drugs is resolved, FDA says
Shares of Hims & Hers ($HIMS) offering compounded Wegovy and Ozempic plummeted 26%.
• Google, Meta execs blast Europe over strict AI regulation as Big Tech ups the ante
Says EU regulation on AI came about even before ChatGPT was launched.
• NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang explains how the stock market got it wrong on DeepSeek
Says it’s not simply pre-training, then inference. In fact there will continue to be post-training, which is where the model learns to solve problems.
• DDN’s Beyong Artificial video featuring Jensen Huang
• Trump administration pushes out top China export policy official, sources say
They must have been at odds.
• Trump’s 10% oil tariff could cost foreign producers $10 billion annually, Goldman Sachs says
Markets
Broad retreat in global equities. $WMT revived inflation fears similar to the numerous occasions since second half last year. It Walmart spending is getting impacted, what wouldn’t? $Gold eyes $3,000/ounce as central banks continue to seek a secure store of value.
Headlines
• Stock market today: S&P 500 falls as Walmart warning fuels economic jitters
$WMT guidance spurs fear that inflation will soon hit the top line.
• US vaccine advisory meeting postponed after Kennedy takes top health job
• US Army Corps revising list of energy emergency projects to fast-track
Army Corps of Engineering will tend to 600 projects first under Trump’s executive order.
• US opens probe into whether to rescind $4 billion in California high-speed rail grants
The $4b was rewarded under Biden administration. Trump has critisized the project of ballooning costs. Previously in 2019, Biden restored a $929m grant revoked by Trump.
• Palantir stock extends losses on report of defense budget cut
• Alibaba stock surges as Chinese tech giant touts ‘robust’ AI momentum
• GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen hikes his personal stake in Alibaba to $1 billion, WSJ says
• Chinese smartphone firm Oppo launches slim $1,870 folding phone to rival Samsung, Huawei
MKBHD reviewed it positively too.
• Citigroup joins corporate retreat from diversity initiatives
Claims the figure $55b in savings is far from truth, and is more like $9b.
• U.S. Stops Arms Sales to Ukraine
• Musk Moves to ‘Fix’ X’s Community Notes Amid Integrity Concerns
Markets
Europe took a break from its rally since the beginning of the year. $SPX hit a new high, though only by a slight margin. Fierce jabs were exchanged between Trump and Zelenskyy following negotiations held in Saudi Arabia, with only Russia and the US present. Trump aims to lower oil prices by resolving wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. US equities were mixed: $TSLA rose 1.8% due to automobile tariffs, while $PLTR shed 10%.
Headlines
• Trump Labels Zelenskyy ‘Dictator’ Amid Ukraine Tensions
Trump says Zelenskyy instigated the war.
• Musk to Discuss $5,000 ‘DOGE Dividend’ with Trump
$5000 will be funded by the savings made by DOGE.
• Apple’s Custom #AppleLaunch Like Animation
• Apple debuts iPhone 16e for $599, includes Apple Intelligence, Apple’s first in-house modem
$AAPL iPhone 16e. Uses its own C1 cellular modem chip, instead of $QCOM’s
• Federal Reserve officials see risks of higher inflation ahead, support pause in rate cuts
Minutes of the FOMC released.
• Microsoft reveals Majorana 1 quantum chip as quantum computing wars heat up
Rising 43% since Feb 7th, fell 6%
• Hims & Hers Buys Lab to Expand Into At-Home Blood Testing
Hims & Hers is famous for providing a cheaper version of weight loss drugs. Also advertised in the Super Bowl.
• Senate Republicans to push ahead with border bill despite Trump opposition
The one being prepared in the House of Representatives includes tax cuts in the trillions.
• Oil holds near one-week high on supply concerns, sanctions on Russia eyed
• Palantir stock drops 10% after report Trump administration eyes large defense budget cuts
Also Alex karp to sell $1.2b of $PLTR stock
Markets
A broad rise in yields and a lukewarm US market, testing new highs. Another huge gain for $HSI, rising 1.6%. Broad rise in yields. US10Y rose 6bps to 4.56%. Gold continues to gain.
Headlines
• Trump, Musk pull curtain back behind relationship, media’s divide and conquer mission
Fox interviews Trump and Musk. Doge makes sure the presidential order gets carried out. Trump: “I wanted somebody really smart to work with me.” Claims executive orders get signed but don’t actually get implemented. The two of them are getting things done.
Data center was the bottleneck. So they build 100k GPUs in 122days. Then built another 100k GPUs in 92 days. Grok3 has 10x more training than Grok2, beats Gemini-2 Pro, GPT-4o. “We are doing some obscuration so that the model doesn’t get copied.” It’s so fast.
• Stock market today: S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq futures hit pause with fresh tariffs, Fed minutes in focus
• Investors aren’t just buying US stocks anymore: Morning Brief
Europe and gold.
• Trump says he will introduce 25% tariffs on autos, pharmaceuticals and chips
• European Capitals Clash Over Ukraine as Trump Makes Overtures to Putin
Germany will have parliamentary election on this Sunday.
• Zelenskiy calls U.S. minerals deal unfair, seeks guarantees
• Germany’s Cartel Office calls for tighter oil pricing rules
Cartel Office aims to bolster competition.
• Europe stocks mixed; Philips tumbles 12% after sales miss expectations
• UK inflation leaps to higher-than-expected 3% in January
Inflation increased to the highest level since March 2024. UK rates were cut 25bps on Feb 6th to 4.5%
• Trump says Ukraine ‘should never have started it’ in comments about war with Russia
Says they should’ve made a deal 3 years ago.
• Singapore likely to see ‘limited’ direct impact from U.S. tariffs: deputy prime minister
Says progress in nuclear technology is their main concern. Singapore powers 95% of electricity needs through LNG from Malaysia and Indonesia. Looking into SMRs.
• Trump Is Scrambling Global Automakers’ Reliance on America
Korean and Japanese manufacturers have been increasing output in the United States, but still rely more on cars made in their home country.
• The French Billionaire Working His Trump Ties to Spare His Luxury Empire
May increase more production in the US for favorable tariffs.
Markets
The US market closed on Monday for Washington’s Birthday holiday. The Department of Government Efficiency continues to investigate government bodies. It has created X accounts dedicated to respective updates like @DOGE_USDA. The rest of the world continued to gain. Peace talks regarding the Russia-Ukraine frontier are underway, helping European stocks. Futures point to a higher open for US equities.
Headlines
• Delta Flight Crash-Lands in Toronto: 18 Injured
No deaths, 18 injuries, snowy runway, overturned belly-up.
• DOGE Reveals $4.7T Untraceable Treasury Payments
DOGE says filling in identification code linking payment to budget item was optional.
• Trump’s Reciprocal Tariff Plan and Presidents’ Day Celebrations
Trump: “On Trade, I have decided, for purposes of Fairness, that I will charge a RECIPROCAL Tariff meaning, whatever Countries charge the United States of America, we will charge them – No more, no less!”
• Elon Musk, Senators Demand Fort Knox Gold Audit
Last known audit of Fort Knox was 1974. There should be 4,580 tons, in theory.
• Miami Beach Shooting: Man Charged for Mistaking Israelis for Palestinians
Jewish man shoots Jewish father and son, mistaking them for a Palestinian. VIctim took it as anti-semitism and posted “Death to the Arabs” on social media.
• DOGE Announces Audit of SEC for Alleged Misconduct
DOGE made accounts for every government department.
• Airbnb Co-Founder Joins DOGE, Faces Public Boycott
• Debating HPV Vaccine: Safety, Efficacy, and Litigation
RFK Jr. critisized the safety and efficacy of the Gardasil vaccine.
• Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq push higher to start holiday-shortened trading week
• Samsung Electronics to cancel $2.11 billion worth of own shares
• Rising dollar pressures earnings as companies from Amazon to McDonald’s signal more pain ahead
• Asia stocks muted with focus on RBA; China tech rallies ahead of earnings
India currently levies up to 100% tariff on car imports. Modi and Musk may have struck a deal as India would like to avoid reciprocal tariffs. Musk formerly halted investment in India.
• India’s stock market correction to continue, eyes single-digit Nifty returns- BofA
• Samsung Electronics nominates chip execs as new board members
• Oil prices edge lower after drone attack on Russian pump station
• Honda ready to revive takeover talks if Nissan CEO Uchida leaves, FT reports
Headlines
Headlines
• Investors Spot Signs of Market Froth During Long Bull Market
• Jan. 6 Rioters Argue Pardons Apply to Charges Including Murder Plot, Child Porn
• Japan’s fourth-quarter economic expansion tops expectations as exports rise; full-year growth slows
• U.S. and Ukraine could still secure minerals deal that is ‘positive’ for both sides, officials say
Zelenskyy rejected a deal on Saturday, supposedly handing over 50% ownership of critical minerals to the US.
• U.S. gave Ukraine a document to access its minerals but offered almost nothing in return
• CNBC Daily Open: Elon Musk’s money is not the issue for OpenAI
• Australia’s Perpetual rises as KKR makes fresh bid for wealth, trust units
Perpetual Ltd is in financial services.
• Musk’s DOGE team to visit US FAA air traffic control command center on Monday
• Australian steelmaker BlueScope sees Trump’s tariffs as a boon
Says higher prices will benefit business. “Steel prices were up 20% since Trump’s tariff announcement a week ago.”
• Goldman Sachs raises China stock market target on AI boost
• Tencent jumps as its Weixin app launches beta testing with Deepseek
• Gold Holds Biggest Loss Since December on Concern Rally Overdone
It really didn’t fall that much.
Weekly Markets
A grace period until April 1 eased market tensions this week. Gains were led by positive earnings led be M7 except for $GOOG and $TSLA. Chinese shares gained as PBOC further reduced requirement ratio. $HSI rose 7% this week. Europe continued to catch up to US shares. Two months into 2025, market is getting around to higher-for-longer rates. CME FedWatch shows 22% staying still, 38% 25bps rate cut, and 27% 50bps cut. Despite Trump-Modi summit, $SENSEX continued its decline.
Headlines
• ‘I’m on Trump time:’ Kellogg says Russia-Ukraine peace plan could come in days or weeks
Kellogg says Europe may not be present, but the region’s interests would be taken into account.
• As Trump eyes more tariffs, South Korea remains safe haven for GM and Hyundai
Korea produced 8.6% of vehicles sold in the US last year without tariffs.
• As top officials meet at security summit, Europe must step-up on defense or risk being sidelined
• Russia’s Putin could be NATO’s ‘Man of the Year’ as he’s strengthened the alliance, Trump ally says
• More Musk-like ‘Dexits’ pose fresh threat to Delaware’s corporation crown
Delaware-exit. Nevada and Texas are the popular alternatives.
• Wall Street’s diversity dilemma deepens as JPMorgan’s Dimon sounds off on ‘stupid’ DEI expenses
Jamie Dimon, an advocate of DEI programs, suddenly says he will not waste money in bureaucracy.
• Trump Administration Approves Texas Deepwater Oil Export Project
The port proposed by Sentinel Midstream LLC is able to handle 1m barrels of oil daily.
• Elon Musk says xAI’s Grok 3 chatbot to be unveiled on Monday
• Apple aims to bring AI features and spatial content app to Vision Pro, Bloomberg reports
The features will be rolled out through a software update.
• Pope Francis, in hospital, won’t lead usual Sunday prayer, Vatican says
He is receiving treatment for a respiratory tract infection.
• Zelenskiy says draft US minerals deal ‘does not protect’ Ukraine
Sources say the US proposed taking ownership of 50% of Ukraine’s critical minerals.
• Thousands rally in Serbia as anger over corruption swells
• Broadcom, TSMC Weigh Possible Intel Deals That Would Split Storied Chip Maker
Markets
PBOC cuts reserve requirement ratio by 50bps resulting in a widespread rally for Hong Kong listed stocks. $HSI rallied 3.7% and Hang Seng Tech Index climbed 5.8%. US10Y and US2Y yields dropped by 5bps, bringing it back to levels 2 weeks prior after a series of ups and downs. Equities around the world displayed little activity. $META rose for the 20th consecutive trading session.
Headlines
• Stock market today: Nasdaq logs best week of 2025 as Dow, S&P 500 notch third-straight weekly gain
• Meta Platforms stock just closed higher for the 20th straight day
$META is up 26% YTD. Anticipates AI features in their product lineup, executed layoffs for cost efficiency.
• Judge temporarily blocks mass firing and data deletion at CFPB
Halts movement to dismantle the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
• Nvidia shakes up stock portfolio, cratering Serve Robotics and sending WeRide soaring
Shares of WeRide $WRD , a Chinese company in the self-driving space listed on the Nasdaq rose 84% after $NVDA disclosed new stake in the company.
• Airbnb stock surges as CEO aims to make app the ‘Amazon’ of travel and living
$ABNB soars 14% as CEO mentions a pivot to a center for traveling and living
• Dell Nears $5 Billion AI Server Deal for Elon Musk’s xAI
The server provided to xAI will contain $NVDA GB200
• Middle-income households are saving more for retirement
People earning $50-100k save 8% on average. 12% including employer match.
• Trump Media Losses Surge as It Hands Staff $107 Million in Stock
The company has 29 full-time employees
• Milei Pushes Crypto Token, Then Deletes Post Amid Fears of Scam
The post advertised a crypto coin
• Spotify weighs $5.99 premium for added features, ticket access, Bloomberg News reports
The pro-tier would have better audio quality and ticket access.
• JD Vance criticizes European democracy, says greatest threat is ‘from within’
• China will ‘play along to the end’ with U.S., its top diplomat says
Wang Yi displayed a softened stance at the Munich Security Conference.
• China calls for all stakeholders in Ukraine war to be in peace process
• Saudi Arabia ready to host proposed Trump-Putin summit
• US judges bar Musk’s DOGE from Treasury, allow access to health, labor
• Zelenskiy says Ukraine has ‘low chance’ of survival without US backing
Markets
News of broader, reciprocal tariffs did not weigh on investors, as implementation is set for after April 1. A non-terrible PPI reading also boosted sentiment. $IXIC rose 1.5%, with all sector indices closing in positive territory. Gains were driven primarily by the M7, with $NVDA, $AAPL, and $GOOG each up over 1%. $TSLA surged 5% on news of a $400M armored EV contract and Musk’s mention of plans to stay at DOGE for four months. Yields and $DXY fell on easing inflation concerns. European markets extended their rally.
Headlines
• Producer prices report points to softer Fed inflation measure than feared
Increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in January.
• Arm secures Meta as first customer for ambitious new chip project, FT reports
Arm to launch its own chip this year. It will be a CPU for servers and will be manufactured by foundry.
• Trump unveils slew of reciprocal tariffs on US trading partners
The recommendation by the Commerce Department will be ready by April 1.
• Kennedy’s confirmation in top US health job could boost beef tallow demand
He claims cooking with beef fat is better than using plant based oil.
• Mass firings of federal workers begin as Trump and Musk purge U.S. government
Termination emails were sent to recent hires at the Education Department saying that their employment would not be of public interest.
• Tariffs & Immigration: Trouble ahead for the US consumer, Morgan Stanley warns
• Judge blocks Trump order curbing youth gender transition treatments
• Trump announces upcoming car tariffs and non-monetary tariffs
Says he wants to reestablish fairness
• India’s Modi meets with Tesla, SpaceX CEO Musk in Washington
Starlink license in India is under review
• Coinbase stock jumps on earnings anticipation and S&P 500 inclusion rumor
Climbs 8.5%
Markets
Treasury yields shoots upward after a higher-than-expected inflation in January. #CPI rose 0.5% in January compared to the month prior. $DXY gains accordingly. Market sentiment persists, with much of Europe seeing appreciation, $BTC hanging in the $95k range, $SPX in the 6,000 range for almost 3 months now. India continues the gradual descent from September highs.
Headlines
• Trump says interest rates should be lowered to go ‘hand in hand’ with his tariffs
• Wall Street analysts react to U.S. inflation data
January CPI +0.5% MoM
• 10-year Treasury yield shoots above 4.6% after hot CPI report
#US10Y jumps 9bps to 4.63%, #US2Y jumps 8bps to 4.37%
• Dow closes 200 points lower, S&P 500 falls after hot consumer inflation report: Live updates
• India’s Modi to meet with Trump, Musk on Thursday as trade tensions mount
Modi will likely procure more LNG and defense equipment. He will also meet Musk.
• Trump Says He and Putin Agreed to Begin Talks on Ending Ukraine War
Trump says he had a “lengthy and highly productive phone call” with Putin. Meanwhile US Treasury Secretary Bessent is in Ukraine to talk minerals.
• Israel Sees Opening for Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Sites, U.S. Intelligence Warned
The intelligence came in near end of Biden’s term.
• Trump froze a bribery law that previously hit suppliers for Elon Musk’s Tesla
Trump paused the enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act
• Elon Musk-led DOGE seen saving as much as $350 billion a year – Wolfe Research
There is a doge tracker website based on information on X
• OpenAI plans to simplify AI products in new road map for latest models, CEO Altman says
• U.S. posts $129 billion January deficit on calendar shifts, higher outlays
• Chevron to lay off up to 20% of global workforce
Aims to cut costs by $2b through 2026.
• Japan, Australia seek exemption from U.S. steel, aluminum tariffs
• Fed’s Powell sees a ways to go on shrinking Fed holdings
Powell will continue with QT, a process started in June 2022, when inflation was peaking. The Fed has shed $2t from its balance sheet since then.
• Dollar gains on yen as consumer prices rise more than expected
Yen is highly sensitive to the interest rate gap. Treasury yields jumped from the CPI shock.
Markets
Choppy trading in US equities, alternating gains and losses. $TSLA continues to accumulate losses, dropping 6% today. Europe continues to gain, very slowly catching up to the widened gap with the US. EU vows to retaliate tariffs, and also pour money into AI. Figures like Powell and Ken Griffen mention concerns over tariffs – how they will raise prices and erode trust. Treasury yields rose on hawkish comments. 24Q4 Earnings release are more than halfway through.
Headlines
• Sam Altman tells OpenAI staff that board hasn’t ‘seen anything official from Elon’
Sam Altman rejected Musk’s $97b offer, which may not have been official after all.
• Ken Griffin says Trump’s ‘bombastic’ trade rhetoric is a mistake that’s eroding trust in the U.S.
“It tears into the minds of CEOs, policymakers that we can’t depend upon America, as our trading partner.”
• European stocks close higher after Trump imposes fresh tariffs
Stoxx 600 closed at record high, +7.15% YTD.
• Ukraine ‘may be Russian someday,’ Trump says, as the U.S. ups the pressure on Kyiv and allies
Trump claims Ukraine agreed to give $500b worth of rare minerals in exchange for ongoing support.
• JD Vance says U.S. will defend American AI and block efforts to weaponize the tech
Says EU are regulating AI too much, and cheap tech subsidized and exported by authoritarian regimes will not pay off.
• Kering slightly beats fourth-quarter forecasts even as sales at embattled Gucci brand plunge 24%
24Q4 revenue -12% YoY.
• Meta stock closes higher for 17th straight session
Analysts praise its positioning in the AI space.
• Dollar falls as tariff concerns ease, Fed’s Powell stays patient on rate cuts
Says it was not the role of Fed to comment on policy, but to react to how it will impact the economy.
• Trump’s tariffs lift US metals prices but underscore production struggles
Whether domestic production can rise in time is the question.
• Goldman Sachs ends IPO diversity policy citing legal developments
GS would only take public companies which had at least two diverse board members
• JPMorgan sees investment banking fees rising by mid-teens percentage in first quarter
• EU says AI race ‘far from over’ as bloc pledges 50-billion-euro investment boost
Including previous funding brings total to $200b
• Trump says Treasury Secretary Bessent is going to Ukraine as U.S. has ‘little to show’ for aid sent
Markets
Broad gains in the market. Especially $Gold. Sooner and broader tariffs are fueling the commodity past $2,900 per ounce. As per NY Fed survey of expected inflation, 1Y, 3Y stayed still at 3%, while 5Y rose 0.3%p, also reaching 3%. As inflation measures continue to disappoint, Morgan Stanley reduced the outlook of number of rate cuts to one 25bps cut. Tariffs on steel imports boosted relevant stocks like $NUE. AI continued to fuel the market up. $TSLA continues to descend from the Dec 17 highs. ex-US equities continue their slow steady winning streak.
Headlines
• Elon Musk investor group submits $97.4 billion bid for OpenAI – WSJ
OpenAI is potentially worth $300b as per SoftBank deal.
• Wall Street ends higher on AI strength; steelmakers climb on Trump tariff threat
$NVDA +2.84%, $AVGO +4.49%, $PLTR +5.27%, $TSLA -3.04%
• US containerized imports hit record high in January
Chinese imports grew 10% YoY in January. Trump imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese goods starting Feb 4.
• US judge keeps his block on Trump federal buyout plan in place for now
65k federal workers sign up for Trump’s buyout program despite unions urge not to. US District Judge George O’Toole in Boston halted the implementation for now.
• Coffee in New York jumps 6% to new record amid ‘panic buying’
Hot and dry weather forecast and low coffee inventory in Brazil causes further price hikes
• Bond traders waver as Trump questions US government debt figures
• Gold prices hit record high as Trump tariffs fuel haven demand
$2900/ounce
• Dollar gains, others slip on tariff threats
• Trump’s sooner, broader tariffs risk upside inflation, curbing rate-cut hopes
Morgan Stanley expects one rate cut of 25bp in 2025.
• Trump, Musk actions put America at risk of ‘a form of default,’ former Treasury chiefs warn
• Musk suggests closer scrutiny of Fed as Powell prepares to face Congress
“All aspects of the government must be fully transparent and accountable to the people. No exceptions, including, if not especially, the Federal Reserve.”
• Meta Starts Eliminating Jobs in Shift to Find AI Talent
Meta is letting go around 3,600 low performers with 16weeks of severance.
Disney’s “Reimagine Tomorrow” and “The Disney Look” initiatives were scrapped in the latest 10-K filing.
• T-Mobile launches beta for Starlink connection. Stock surges.
Super Bowl ad featured the $TMUS – Starlink partnership
Headlines
Says there were no technological advancements in the product. Claims Gemini 2.0 is more efficient.
• Egypt announces emergency Arab summit after Trump’s Gaza plan infuriates key allies
• Trump says he has spoken to Putin about ending the Ukraine war
• China’s consumer inflation at 5-month high, producer deflation persists
• Japan PM Ishiba, after meeting Trump, voices optimism over averting tariffs
“Japan had the highest foreign direct investment in the US in 2023 at $783b”
• From bridges to oil refineries and defense, robots fix on aging U.S. infrastructure
Gecko produces robots equipped with AI and sensors capable of detecting defects.
• ‘No thanks’, white South Africans turn down Trump’s immigration offer
• Trump says he expects Musk to find billions in Pentagon waste
• Investors await new inflation data amid tariff concerns: What to know this week
78 S&P 500 companies will release earnings this week.
• Hidden AI stocks set to rally amid DeepSeek’s breakthrough, analysts predict
• TKer: Even with tariffs looming, the stock market continues to trade near record highs
• Musk brings his business playbook to Washington: Move fast and claim victory
• Apple could launch a new iPhone SE and PowerBeats Pro 2 on February 11
• Starbucks is giving away free coffee on Monday
Starbucks instructed employees to write messages on cups
Markets
Earnings and Trump’s tariffs dominated the agenda this week. Starting off Monday with $IXIC -1.20% and $SPX -0.76%, US equities recovered the dip through Thursday from sound earnings and many positive outlooks. On Friday Trump continued to fire tariff threats. Jobs report were mixed, but consumer sentiment data from U Michigan showed a sharp incline in inflation outlook. These factors dragged US equity indices down to net negative for the week. 4.49% gain for $HSI. Since the January 2024 lows, the index has gradually risen 38%. $BTC was below $100k for the better part of the week. For Treasuries, 10Y and 2Y showed divergence. The yields of latter gained noticeably from disappointing inflation metrics.
Headlines
• Federal Judge Blocks Elon Musk’s DOGE From Treasury System
• Trump Is Changing the World Order With Unprecedented Speed
As federal funding freezes, payments to individuals, agencies, constructions are getting uncertain.
• Europe’s Unloved Stocks Are Suddenly on Top of the World
DAX, FTSE, CAC has outperformed US equity indices YTD. Doesn’t mention much innate appeal of European equities. More like stopped being terrible is the main logic – rates are falling faster the the US, political uncertainty in France is abating, valuation has deviated too much from the US, war between Ukraine and Russia seems like it’s going to end.
• The Tequila Boom Is Over. The Tequila Price War Has Begun.
Vodka and tequila are the top 2 most popular spirit in the US. Casamigos and Patron have been lowering prices for more than a year. Trump’s tariffs against Mexico could be another problem.
• Trump signs order to cut funding for South Africa over land policy, ICJ case
South Africa received $440m in assistance in 2023 from the US. A bill allowing an easier expropriation of land by the state has been signed. Washington commented willingness to accept those largely Dutch and French descendant farmers and families as refugees.
• British junior minister sacked by PM Starmer over WhatsApp messages
Junior minister insulted other members of parliament via WhatsApp.
• Hamas frees three hostages, Israel begins releasing Palestinians
• Protesters denounce Trump immigration policies outside his Florida golf club
• Iran currency plunges to record lows amid escalating U.S. tensions
Inflation rate is 35% in Iran. Iranians have been turning to USD, gold, crypto instead, causing further destabilization of the rial.
• Trump administration backs big arms sales to Israel, defying Congress
US government approves military sales to Israel worth $7.4b
• Baltic nations cut ties to Russian power grid, prepare to link with EU
The disconnection of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania
• Boeing warns moon rocket program employees of layoffs happened Saturday.
• Trump, headed to Super Bowl LIX, has long and tangled relationship with football
He will be the first incumbent to attend the Super Bowl.
• Billionaire Musk says not interested in acquiring TikTok
“I do not acquire companies in general. I usually build companies from scratch.”
• Microsoft’s Bill Gates: Steve Jobs was a genius in this area
• Team Trump’s fight to convince Wall Street that Musk’s DOGE is good for markets
• What happened to Nissan? And what happens next if a Honda merger is truly dead?
Honda looks to Nissan as a less reputable partner/subsidiary that needs drastic cost-cutting.
Markets
University of Michigan consumer survey showed a sharp uptick in 1-Year expected inflation – from 3.3% last month to 4.3%. Trump continued talking tariff. While he did not mention countries, EU said they are willing to cut the 10% tax on car imports from the US, to be more aligned with that of the US, that is, 2.5%. Yields rose, dollar gained, equities fell. $BTC hovered below the $100k line. $Gold continued to ascend, rising 7.7% in the past month.
Headlines
• Newman: Trumpers are souring on Elon Musk
As musk is raids one gov agency after another, Republican shows diminishing support. Everyone wants to get healthier and slimmer, but diet control and working out isn’t fun.
• Meta prepares for layoffs on Monday -internal memo
Notice will be rolling out Monday next week. Meanwhile, Meta will continue to hire more ML engineers.
• Trump says US Steel will get investment from Nippon Steel, instead of being bought by it
Ishiba says Japanese technology will be provided to US Steel.
• Treasuries Retain Losses as Jobs Report Leaves Fed Path Intact
The policy-sensitive 2YR Treasuries rose 7bps to 4.29%.
• Tesla stock posts weekly loss as slump in China deliveries caps volatile week
$TSLA rose 125% from late-October to mid-December, and fell 25% from then till now. Deliveries of Model 3 and Y made in China fell 32.6% from December.
• Oil Posts Third Weekly Drop as Trump Tariffs Hit Demand Outlook
Oil price fell 5% in the last 30days, despite heightened tariffs looming over the commodity, due to fears of slowed economic activity worldwide.
• Trump Says He Discussed LNG Exports With Japan’s Ishiba
Trumps says Japan will import more LNG from the US, work on a joint venture on an Alaskan energy project.
• SEC Says Game Service Roblox Part of ‘Active Investigation’
The video game company is under probe.
• Six million people could die from HIV and AIDS if US funding stops, UN agency warns
• BofA to buy $9 billion residential mortgage loan from Canada’s TD, source says
Toronto-Dominion Bank
• S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats welcomes Erie Indemnity, Eversource Energy, FactSet Research Systems
The index, rebalanced to 69 constituents, tracks companies that raised dividends for at least 25 consecutive years.
• Trump stops Biden’s daily intelligence briefings
• L’Oreal looks to U.S. ‘land of opportunity’ as China disappoints
Markets
ISM Services PMI fell to 52.8 from 54.0, bringing yields lowers and weakening the dollar. 5% rebound in $NVDA mitigates losses in $AMZN, $GOOG, $TSLA, flatlining the index. More earnings got released. China came back from New Years.
Headlines
• US Postal Service Reverses Decision to Halt China Shipments
USPS will accept all inbound parcel from China. US government is working out a way to tax parcels under $800.
• Exit Polls Predict Modi Winning India’s Capital After Decades
Modi’s party BJP lost majority vote last year, but may win majority in the Delhi assembly.
• Trump’s Gaza Takeover Gets Israeli Approval, Global Scorn
• Ford Sees Sharp Profit Drop as Trump Tariff, EV Threats Loom
“25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada would have a major impact”
• Xi Has Squandered His Most Powerful Trade War Weapon
“In a global trade war, the economy with a powerful consumer base wins.” – the Americans.
• Stock market today: S&P 500 ends higher on falling Treasury yields, jump in Nvidia
Apple cut losses to flatline at close after news of China probe.
• Qualcomm results, forecast top expectations as AI drives smartphone sales
• UnitedHealth raises concerns over Bill Ackman’s post on X with SEC
UnitedHealth fell 1.5% after the post.
• Google scraps diversity-based hiring targets, WSJ reports
• With US House stymied, Senate Republicans prepare to move on Trump agenda
• Gold prices remain near fresh record highs on trade war fears, Gaza uncertainty
• Gold demand hits record levels as central banks buy at ‘eye-watering’ pace
Climbed above $2,900
• Google opens its most powerful AI models to everyone, the next stage in its virtual agent push
Gemini2.0
• AMD shares drop more than 6%, close at lowest since 2023 on disappointing data center revenue
• Argentina to withdraw from WHO after Trump exit, citing ‘deep differences’
The US left WHO last month
Markets
Markets rebound despite a series of tariffs. Sentiment eases slightly after the Mexican concession. China’s retaliatory tariff of 15% on select American goods didn’t faze investors, yet. S&P 500 companies that released earnings grew on average 16.3% in 24Q4 as per FactSet. $GOOG cloud revenue of $11.9b disappointed when consensus was $12.1b. The market was earlier disappointed in $MSFT $40b cloud revenue lagging behind $41.1b. $PLTR soared 24%. $BTC dips below $100k again. Yields fell. Dollar fell.
Headlines
• China retaliates with additional tariffs of up to 15% on select U.S. imports starting Feb. 10
15% on coal and LNG, 10% on crude oil and many other.
• Alphabet shares drop 7% on company revenue miss
Cloud revenue of $11.9b disappoints when consensus was $12.1b
• Palantir soars 24% to record high as AI powers strong earnings and guidance
• ‘Strongman’ leaders of Europe don’t look so strong anymore
The nationalist-populist leaders of Hungary, Slovakia, Germany and France were expected to see some boost since Trump inauguration – but it’s not that simple.
• Senators float resolution to overturn Biden methane fee rule
The methane fee was mandated by the 2022 IRA to force oil and gas companies to greenhouse gas emissions. Trumps wants America to drill.
• Chipotle assesses fallout from Mexico tariffs, forecasts tepid annual sales growth
$CMG depends on supplies, including half of their Avocados, from Mexico.
• U.S. Begins Migrant Flights to Guantanamo Bay
The new administration plans for the naval base in Cuba to hold 30k immigrants.
• Trump Order Set to Ban Transgender Girls and Women From Female School Sports
• Trump Campaigned on Ending Foreign Entanglements. Now He Wants to Own Gaza.
Trump was previously vocal about shrinking America’s role abroad. He talked about Greenland, the Panama Canal. Now it’s Gaza.
• The Fed could find itself in a policy Catch-22 if tariffs spike inflation and slow growth
Headlines
• Stock market today: S&P 500 ends above session lows on easing trade war jitters
• Stock market today: S&P 500, Nasdaq sink, Dow claws back as Mexico gets Trump tariff reprieve
Main cause: Trump’s tariffs against Canada and China.
• Palantir forecasts 2025 revenue above estimates on AI strength, shares surge
The company’s customer count grew 43% in 24Q4
• Trump warns China of higher tariffs ahead of talks
• Trump pauses Mexico tariffs for one month after agreement on border troops
Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaun will send 10k Mexican troops to the borders to stop flow of fentanyl, and illegal immigrants to the US.
• Trump signs order establishing a sovereign wealth fund that he says could buy TikTok
Such vehicle is generally used by smaller nations with vast natural resources and fiscal surpluses – like China, Norway, and Singapore.
• Vanguard announces fee cuts for nearly 100 funds, including ETFs with billions of dollars in assets
• New tariffs could raise home prices and sideline potential buyers
Homebuilder association asked Trump to exempt building materials from tariffs. Oil companies voiced the need for exemption for Canadian oil earlier this week.
• In a switch, Trump approves of the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates steady
Said “Holding the rates at this point was the right thing to do.”
• Auto stocks slip on fears Trump tariffs will harm industry
$TSLA fell 5.2% likely due to its using parts manufactured in Canada and Mexico.
• Nvidia stock falls as Trump’s tariffs send shockwaves across the market
Last week $NVDA was hurt from the possibility of sanctions over H20 chips, which were made to be China-export compliant.
• Trump tariffs mean Canadian whisky importers may pass costs to Americans
Markets
Another week of global equities catching up to the US. The average gain of $FTSE, $CAC 40, $DAX indices was +7.7% for the past month, while $SPX recorded +2.7%. A DeepSeek induced selloff on Monday for Big tech, with $NVDA dropping 17%. US indices saw higher volatility throughout the week. Major firms reported 24Q4 earnings. Where for AI, meeting analyst expectations is the baseline, $MSFT suffered, and $META, $AAPL, $TSLA did alright. A mix of sentiment for Apple exists – stalling iPhone outlook, while still being the king of hardware. Information Technology fell 5%, while Telecommunication Services, Healthcare, Financials, Consumer Staples rose more than 2% each. US treasury yields invariably fell, while dollar gained, potentially due to Trump’s America First policies.
Headlines
• New tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China announced by President Trump
Order was signed on Saturday, and will come into effect on Tuesday.
• Reaction to Trump’s imposition of tariffs on Mexico, Canada, China
American oil companies voices need for tariff exclusion for crude oil.
• Mexican president orders retaliatory tariffs against U.S
• French PM urges ECB to cut rates to boost growth
Contends inflation is back to normal, and the rate-cut is necessary for competition with China and the US. ECB cut rates on Thursday from 3.0% to 2.75%.
• Trump says U.S. carries out airstrikes on Islamic State in Somalia
Trump says Islamic terrorists were in a cave in Somalia
• Crashed US Army Black Hawk unit was responsible for doomsday readiness
The mission was “continuity of government” – a regular, operational training.
• Analysis-Trump’s oil tariffs a boost for European and Asian refiners
• Pump prices set to rise as Trump tariffs hit Canadian, Mexican oil
• Trump’s Pentagon says it will ‘rotate’ out some media from offices
Four media outlets including NYT will be removed their office space in the Pentagon.
• DeepSeek’s hardware spend could be as high as $500 million, new report estimates
Alex Karp also said he doesn’t believe the $5.6 figure on a recent CNBC interview.
• Singapore says U.S. firms should comply with export controls following DeepSeek chip questions
$NVDA spokesperson told CNBC that the chips DeepSeek used were export-compliant.
• Gaza ceasefire sees its smoothest exchange yet of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners
Israeli Prime Minister will meet Trump on the coming Tuesday.
