Markets
A choppy week after three weeks of consecutive losses. India’s $SENSEX picks up 4%, bringing the drawdown from its peak similar to that of $SPX, although the decline started 4 months earlier. Chinese markets take a breather too, following some 25% rally since January. Yields retreat overall, reflecting pessimism in the economy. $BTC, $Gold, $DXY gain slightly.
Headlines
• Trump says ‘there’ll be flexibility’ on reciprocal tariffs
He also plans to talk with Xi
• China Explores Limiting Its Own Exports to Mollify Trump
China may be exploring voluntary export restraints.
• U.S. Directs a Second Aircraft Carrier to the Middle East
• A Weakened Hamas Struggles to Respond to Israel’s Attacks
• Military pressure will bring hostages back from Gaza, Israeli official says
• From ‘Woke’ Colleges to Hunter Biden and Big Law: Trump’s Week of Settling Scores
• Trump pulls security clearances for Kamala Harris, Hillary Clinton
• IRS Nears Deal to Share Data for Immigration Enforcement
IRS has been issuing taxpayer identification numbers for people without a social security number, to encourage paying tax even if they are in the US unlawfully. Now, the IRS and ICE data could become merged.
• She’s Accused of Duping JPMorgan. Somehow, the Bank Is Feeling the Heat
• Anti-Musk protesters gather outside Tesla dealership in Washington
• Tesla owners are trading in their EVs at record levels, Edmunds says
• Elon Musk tells Tesla employees ‘hang onto your stock,’ urges vandals to ‘stop being psycho’
“I understand if you don’t wanna buy our product, but you don’t have to burn it down. That’s a bit unreasonable.”
• Michigan nuclear plant shows the challenges the U.S. will face in safely restarting old reactors
The project is backed by $1.5b loan from DoE, $1.3b from Department of Agriculture, and $300m in grants from the state of Michigan. Key components like the turbine and steam generator needs repair.
• OpenAI, Meta in talks with Reliance for AI partnerships, The Information reports
• Heathrow Airport orders probe into shutdown as travellers endure days of disruption
Fire at a nearby electrical substation was the cause.
Markets
Communication services, Consumer Discretionary, IT slide around 2% or more, officially bringing index into correction territory. $Gold makes advancement above $3,000/ounce amid higher volatility and a drop in equity. On the tariff front, Trump and EU exchange more blows, this time, on alcohol. $INTC rises 15% upon change in leadership. Trump gets sued for laying-off half the work force in the Department of Education. Despite his cost cutting, Trump needs congress on his side to avoid shutdown, which will likely happen.
Headlines
• Trump threatens to put 200% tariff on French Champagne and other EU spirits
• US wine shops and importers say Trump’s threatened 200% tariff on European wines would kill demand
A response to the reinstatement of tariff on American Whiskey.
• Trump sued by 20 states to halt the ‘dismantling’ of Education Department
• A 10% drop for stocks is scary, but isn’t that rare
Among the 48 corrections since WWI, only 12 have leaded to a bear market, a decline in stock price of over 20%.
• Sen. Ted Cruz on government shutdown: It will be averted
“I think it’s probably not going to happen. I think we’re gonna see the Democrats cave”
• Apple Plans AirPods Feature That Can Live-Translate Conversations
The feature may come later this year packaged with iOS 19
• Undocumented Subprime Borrowers Pose Risk to Wall Street
“now, they(big banks) make it clear that their preference is for borrowers to be citizens.” They haven’t cared much until now.
• Ulta Beauty tops quarterly results on strong holiday demand for cosmetics, perfumes
Cosmetics spending during Thanksgiving.
• Exclusive-Major US toymaker speeds up plan to move manufacturing out of China
MGA Entertainment supply to Walmart, dolls and toys made in China. It is now seeking to relocate 40% of production to India and Vietnam.
• Dollar General, Dollar Tree stocks rise as penny-pinching consumers look for low-cost options
• Why a major shift to US clothing production is unlikely
US does not have the capacity, labor nor the raw materials
Markets
Market sees rebound after plummeting on Monday. A cooler CPI of 2.8% YoY in February helps sentiment. $NVDA and $TSLA records high daily gains, with investors buying the dip. Meanwhile $AAPL is continuing the less drastic, but steady losses. After the beef between Canada and the US over metals, EU confirms a retaliation encompassing $28b worth of American goods. $Gold advances back to earlier highs around mid-$2,900/ounce. Notable strengthening of $JPY, recording +5% YTD. Treasury yields pushed up higher once again.
Headlines
• CPI inflation data cools in February, easing investor fears about the health of the US economy
Feb CPI 2.8% YoY
• U.S. budget deficit surged in February, passing $1 trillion for year-to-date record
Annual budget grew from $1.38t to $1.83 in the final three years of Biden’s term. For the first five months of this fiscal year, the deficit stands at $1.15t.
• Trump tariff threats are pushing Canada’s largest oil producer to break its dependence on the U.S.
Canada is the fourth largest oil producer in the world.
• We ‘must act’: Europe retaliates against Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports
Retaliates with $28b worth of goods made in the US
• Former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin says ‘people are overreacting a bit’ to Trump’s policies
“I don’t think we’re going to have a recession. I don’t think the outlook looks like we’re going to have a recession. And Larry Summers saying there’s a 50% probability, I just don’t agree with that,” Mnuchin said.
• Trump close to naming Bowman as Fed’s top bank cop, signaling shift in regulatory stance: reports
She is in favor of deregulation – less buffers for potential losses.
• Intel appoints Lip-Bu Tan as CEO, stock jumps 11%
• Trump is cutting the Department of Education in half. Here’s how it could impact you and your loans.
“We’re talking about devastating cuts to an agency that was already understaffed. There wasn’t fat there. You’re cutting into bone.” said a former Education Department official.
• Trump tariffs live updates: EU, Canada retaliate as 25% steel, aluminum tariffs take effect
• Tesla US registrations dip 11% in January, the latest sign of demand weakness and consumer backlash
$TSLA fell 15% on Monday, rose 4% on Tuesday, rose 8% on Wednesday.
• Adobe’s dull forecast raises AI monetization doubts, shares fall
Company beats expectation but investors want gen AI features to bring in more money, faster.
Markets
Market sees less volatility than yesterday as further sell-off is balanced with dip-buyers. A brief escalation to 50% on US imports of Canadian steel was dissipated as Ontario countered with an export tax on electricity. $EUR advanced while $STOXX sank 1.7%. $Gold and $BTC also advanced while $DXY continued to deflate from its January high of 110. Meanwhile, Treasury yields which also saw a decline since January, is bouncing back up on recession concerns.
Headlines
• Ukraine agrees to U.S.-led ceasefire plan if Russia accepts
Marco Rubio: “Today, we made an offer that the Ukrainians have accepted, which is to enter into a ceasefire and into immediate negotiations to end this conflict in a way that’s enduring and sustainable and accounts for their interests, their security, their ability to prosper as a nation,”
• Trump will not impose 50% Canadian steel, aluminum tariffs tomorrow, says top trade advisor
• Ontario’s Ford suspends U.S. electric surcharge after Lutnick agrees to trade talks
The escalation to 50% was short-lived as Ontario retaliated with 25% tax on electricity exports to the US. Both sides stepped down. However, the 25% tariff will still be imposed.
• Stock market today: S&P 500 closes lower as tit-for-tat tariffs stokes uncertainty
• Trump calls Tesla boycott ‘illegal’ and says he’s buying one to support Elon Musk
• Trump Says He Doesn’t See US Recession, Downplays Market Turmoil
• Markets aren’t happy, but US steel and aluminum makers don’t totally hate Trump’s new tariffs
• Solar and storage accounted for 84% of new US power added in 2024, report says
Biden’s IRA incentivized the solar industry, resulting in a 50GW installation in 2024. Capacity factor for solar is 10-25%, wind 25%, hydro 40%, coal 70%, nuclear 80%.
• Argentina pushes new IMF deal toward finish line with decree
The debt that matures in 14.5 years, will be used to pay off Treasury debt.
• US House passes bill to avert government shutdown
• Euro rises with Ukraine optimism while stocks fall on tariff uncertainty
$STOXX -1.7%
Markets
$TLSA shares plummeted a whopping 15%. The broader M7 members invariably fell as well, bringing down $IXIC by 4%. Treasury yields dropped considerably as investors flocked to less volatile assets. #US10Y fell 9bps and the 2YR 11bps. $BTC dipped below $80k, moving in tandem with the equities market. Goldman Sachs reversed their economy growth outlook, originally higher than market consensus, to below. The reason? Uncertainties of trumps policies & reversal from the preceding rally.
Headlines
• Nvidia, Tesla slammed as ‘Magnificent 7’ names lead market lower in Monday washout
• Stock market today: Dow sinks 900 points, Nasdaq plunges 4% in worst day since 2022
Trump: undergoing “a period of transition.”
• Musk says juggling DOGE and CEO jobs is difficult, as Tesla shares slump
TSLA slumps 50% from December highs, back to prices seen on ‘We, Robot’ day.
• Goldman Sachs slashes US economic forecasts as tariff impacts grow ‘considerably more adverse’
• Oracle expects 15% revenue growth next fiscal year on strong AI cloud demand
• Treasuries Rally as US Recession Angst Sends Investors to Safety
• X Hit by Cyberattack, Originates from Ukraine
@elonmusk: There was (still is) a massive cyberattack against 𝕏. We get attacked every day, but this was done with a lot of resources. Either a large, coordinated group and/or a country is involved.
• Bitcoin falls as much as 6.5% as volatility continues after Trump’s bitcoin reserve plan
Crypto that have been seized as a result of criminal activity will form the reserve, with no extra dollars put in.
• Alphabet aims to slash cost of new nuclear with small reactor deployments, CIO says
NextEra projects power usage to grow six-fold in the next 20-years
Markets
A sell-off induced weakening of $DXY. As Europe and China make strides and US deemed overvalued, funds are fleeing out of the US. Tech sector got slammed, with $XLK declining 2.8%. The fiscal reform got the $DAX streak going. $HSI continued to climb as Two Sessions span out. Meanwhile, major crypto assets’ inclusion into the federal reserves got $BTC excited. Although Trump’s venture into meme coins and his family’s alleged buying ahead of the news remain controversial.
Headlines
• Stock market today: S&P 500 closes lower as tariff jitters fuel selloff
• Trump says he’s not even looking at stock market, tariffs will make U.S. ‘very strong’
Blames globalists who have been ripping off the US.
• Global bonds sell off as investors react to Trump’s tariffs and a German ‘paradigm shift’
Yields on 10Y bund rose 11bps as expansionary policies fuel inflation outlook and spike preference for stocks.
• U.S. will collapse Iran’s economy by shutting down its oil industry, Treasury secretary says
US pressures Iran’s oil economy and intends to cut them off from the financial system.
• Costco beats quarterly sales estimates on bulk buying surge, misses profit estimates
Costco has extensive operations in Canada, Mexico and China
• Trump Family’s DeFi Project Stocked Up on Crypto Assets Ahead of White House Crypto Summit
• Texas Senate Passes Bitcoin Reserve Bill
Texas will have $BTC on its balance sheet.
Markets
An everything rally as trade tensions ease. Trump postpones auto tariffs against Canada and Mexico last minute, bringing $F to gain $5.9%. Germany’s #DAX sees strong gains after new government announces expansive fiscal policies and a constitution reform allowing for steeper budget deficits. $BTC reclaimed $90k. China commences Two Sessions meeting.
Headlines
• White House Grants One-Month Tariff Exemption for Automakers
For FTA compliant imports from Canada and Mexico. More exemptions may be on the way.
• Automakers Receive One-Month Tariff Exemption; Stocks Rise
• Trump’s Tariff War Puts CEOs on the Front Lines
The likes of Target, Best Buy, Hasbro. Hasbro intends to bring down the ratio of toys manufactured in China and sold in the US from the current 40%.
• Supreme Court Rejects Trump Bid to Delay Foreign-Aid Payouts
• Judge Blocks Trump Administration Cap on Research Costs
The administration proposed a 15% rate cap on indirect research costs funded by NIH.
• Trump Speech Provides Opening for Lawyers Challenging Musk’s DOGE Authority
“I have created the brand new Department of Government Efficiency. DOGE. Perhaps you’ve heard of it. Perhaps. Which is headed by Elon Musk, who is in the gallery tonight.”
• U.S. Suspends Intelligence Sharing With Ukraine
Ukraine got cut-off weapons. Now intelligence.
• Stock market today: S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow rally after Trump pauses Canada, Mexico auto tariffs
ADP data shows 77k new jobs in Feb, a big slowdown from January.
• Ford, GM, Stellantis granted 1-month tariff exemption after call with Trump
“Reciprocal tariffs will still go into effect on April 2nd, but at the request of the companies associated with USMCA, the president is giving them an exemption for one month so that they are not at an economic disadvantage,” said White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt.
• BlackRock’s Panama Canal deal is latest win for chief Larry Fink in strong start to Trump era
BlackRock is buying ports on each side of the Panama Canal from the HK-based company CK Hutchison Holding, at a price of $22.8b.
• Elon Musk says Post Office, Amtrak should be privatized
USPS lost more than $100b since 2007.
• Trump called the CHIPS Act a ‘horrible thing.’ Cutting off funding might not be so straightforward
Commerce Department allocated or paid out $36b of the $52.7b CHIPS Act.
• Germany’s fiscal U-turn could be a ‘game changer’ for the country’s sluggish economy, analysts say
Germany may revise its constitution, allowing for a structural budget deficit exceeding 0.35% of GDP. This rule has made Germany’s outstanding government debt 60% of GDP, on the lower-end of big EU nations. It could change.
• Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak blasts Musk’s DOGE over ‘sledgehammer’ approach to government layoffs
Says Trump and Musk are bullies, suspects X account suspension.
Markets
Markets
Broad sell-off in markets. The rally in Europe halts as Trump’s tariffs materialize. An interesting take I’ve seen lately is that Trump’s deliberately stirring uncertainty into the market so rates fall, making sovereign debt refinancing more manageable. The US market opened low, recovered through the day, then lost steam ahead of Trump’s speech. $BTC sustains above $80k. $Gold sustains $2,900.
Headlines
• Best Buy CEO: Trump tariffs will lead to price increases later this year
CEO Corie Barry said 55% of its products are sourced from China, and 20% from Mexico.
• Stock market today: S&P 500 ends lower as rebound fades ahead of Trump speech
Market opened lower, recovered into positive territory mid-day, and lost steam on escalating tension regarding tariffs
• Parts of US Treasury market show concern about Fed rate-cutting pause
Treasury yields have been falling. #US10Y at 4.54% one month ago, now it’s at 4.16%, below the federal funds rate which was 4.33%.
• Nvidia stock rebounds from Monday’s 9% decline as tariffs weigh on the market
China sales of $NVDA accounts for 13% of revenue.
• Trump tariff live updates: Canada, Mexico, China retaliate as Trump’s new tariffs go into effect
• America’s farmers again take center stage in Trump trade wars 2.0
Mexico came back with a 25% retaliatory tariff. Canada with upto 25% on $107b of US goods. China with upto 15% on US agricultural goods.
• Trudeau dismisses ’very dumb’ tariffs, says Trump wants to ruin Canadian economy
Meanwhile, Trump: “Please explain to Governor Trudeau, of Canada, that when he puts on a Retaliatory Tariff on the U.S., our Reciprocal Tariff will immediately increase by a like amount!,”
• The Trump trade dominated markets post-election. It’s now floundering — and here’s why.
• Tesla China shipments tumble, the latest sign of weakening demand
China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) reports $TSLA shipments to China falling 49% YoY to 31k in February. Meanwhile clean energy car sales as a whole were up 82%.
• Gold Rises as Escalating Trade War Boosts Lure of Haven Assets
• Oil Falls in Late Trading as Lutnick Says Tariffs May Be Lowered
#WTI slipped below $68/barrel
• Measles cases in Texas rise to 159, state health department says
Markets
The contrast between European and US markets becomes more evident as $SPX fell 1.8% while $STOXX 600 rises over a full percent. EURUSD gained 1.1%. Deregulation and an increased tech investment agenda are prominent in Europe. Key nations are also showing a stronger support for Ukraine than the US. Contrary to Mexico, Canada, and China, the region has been excluded from the first round of steep tariffs, although Trump seems to be making a push for an all-round levy of reciprocal tariffs, including automobiles. $BTC saw a short-lived spike after Trump announced strategic crypto reserves, then returned to mid-$80k levels.
Headlines
• Nvidia stock tumbles over 8% to close at lowest level since September
Singapore investigates $DELL and $SMCI, manufacturers of $NVDA ‘s server racks, for possibility of violating US export rules.
• Stock market today: Dow sinks, S&P 500 posts worst day of 2025 after Trump forges ahead on tariffs
Tariffs against Mexico and Canada set to begin tomorrow. Chinese tariffs get higher too, to 20%.
• Morgan Stanley sees Tesla stock reaching $430, reinstates top pick as an AI, robotics play
Says the potential decline in car deliveries throughout the year could create attractive entry points.
• ‘What Europe needs is a DOGE,’ Deutsche Telekom CEO says in impassioned plea for deregulation
“We need an initiative to cut down this bureaucracy and this administration here, because there are tens of thousands of people sitting there and administrating our industries,”
• FCC chair says U.S. will defend interests of its tech giants as European rules stoke tension
• Amazon-backed AI firm Anthropic valued at $61.5 billion after latest round
Anthropic’s revenue hit $1b in December last year.
• Trump announces $100 billion investment in U.S. from TSMC, calls it ‘most powerful company’ in world
$TSMC will build five new fabs in Arizona.
• Oscars 2025: ‘Anora’ cleans up, Adrien Brody and Zoe Saldana make history
• Melania Trump Advocates for Bipartisan Bill Against Deepfakes
• U.S. Arms Sales to Ukraine Halted, Sanctions on Russia Under Review
Markets
Asian market fretted over US-China tariff tensions. The additional 10% tariff due to implement on March 4th brought $HSI down 3.3%, reversing some of the 26% gain made since early January. European markets were neutral. US equities rebounded and yields fell. Most notably #US2Y fell 8bps. $BTC briefly touched $78k. All sectors in the $SPX rose, with financials leading with a 1.7% gain.
Headlines
• Zelenskyy won’t apologize to Trump, but calls clash ‘not good for both sides’
• Norway plans to raise financial support for Ukraine, prime minister says
Sources say Ukraine’s critical mineral reserves does not make top 10, and that most mineable reserves are located in territory occupied by Russian forces.
• Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq rally to cap volatile week, losing month
$SPX rose 1.59%. $IXIC 1.63%
• Treasury chief urges Canada, Mexico to match US tariffs on China as deadline looms
Bessent: “I think it would be a nice gesture if the Canadians did it also – so in a way, we could have fortress North America from the flood of Chinese imports that’s coming out of the most unbalanced economy in the history of modern times,”
• The first quarter is on track for negative GDP growth, Atlanta Fed indicator says
-1.5% for 1Q25
• Intel delays Ohio chip plant opening to next decade, was supposed to start production by 2026
2026→2030
• Vietnam PM pledges quick licensing for Musk’s Starlink, more import
Pham Minh Chinh said Vietnam is taking measures to rebalance the trade surplus with the US.
• US regulators, in unusual move, raise concerns about new private credit ETF
SPDR SSGA Apollo IG Public & Private Credit ETF launched Friday. SEC raised concerns about the ETF’s liquidity, the guideline being a cap of 15% for illiquid assets. Also, requested removing of the Apollo name.
• Super Micro stock sees nearly 30% weekly loss as AI server competition mounts
Super Micro makes $NVDA Blackwell server racks.
• New investors pumped up bitcoin ETFs. Now some are exiting.
$BTC briefly sank below $80k.
• Tesla just wrapped up its second-worst month ever
Lost 28% in February. Only 10k $TSLA cars were registered in Europe in January.
• German inflation stays unchanged at hotter-than-expected 2.8% in February
• Pope Francis, after setback, had a peaceful night, Vatican says
He is 88 years old.
• Why is BofA bullish on strength of US economy
“We don’t expect evidence of AI adoption to show up in macro data anytime soon. So, for now, it represents an upside risk to our outlook for productivity and growth,” Instead the bank highlighted increased business formation, reduced regulation, and capital deepening
• Microsoft dominates cybersecurity space as rivals struggle to keep up: Bernstein
